For The Win
It’s here. After 284 games, this year’s NFL season is finally at its terminus. Either the Philadelphia Eagles or Kansas City Chiefs will be bathed in confetti at the end of the 2025 Super Bowl, ready to celebrate into the morning hours in New Orleans.
While the betting public is high on a Kansas City three-peat, our resident betting expert, the Rhode Island Scumbag, is fading the trends. And you know what? I’m with him.
Let’s get right into it. Scumbag analysis and plays are in blockquotes below. My non-Scumbag bets follow.
We have arrived at the culmination of the NFL season, hungry to turn a profit after a rough go in the championship round. I’m looking to make contrarian plays to try and avoid going with the crowd and rooting for the sportsbooks to turn a profit.
I leaned too hard in the other direction in the last round, and paid dearly for it. At the risk of being in complete harmony with Christian’s picks, here are a couple wagers I like for the Big Game ™.
Here is my thought process. My sportsbook is currently offering Philadelphia at +1 but at -115 odds. Since the outcome won’t end up in a tie regardless, the one point advantage doesn’t do much for me. I’d rather take the improved odds on the moneyline and hope for the best.
Ultimately, I think that Philadelphia has the defensive prowess and offensive weapons to not only keep up with, but flat out beat Kansas City and prevent their three-peat from becoming a reality.
In terms of the under, I can still get it at 49.5, even though I’ve seen it drop to 48.5 on many of the betting sites. The public seems to really like taking the over here, leading me to lean towards the under. A 27-21 final score is completely in the realm of possibility and with both defenses playing well, I am comfortable with this wager.
Bonus prop bets!
Here are a few bonus scoring props with some decent odds that I can also get behind:
Last week: 0-2, -2 units
Regular season: 35-26-1 (.574), +9 units
Playoffs: 4-4-1 (.500), +0 units
I don’t love the payout here; I thought a four-point swing would get me closer to a +200 reward. But that would take a 5.5-point spread to get there and that’s too risky a line against Patrick Mahomes and his endless string of postseason magic.
So why do the Eagles win when Kansas City keeps finding ways to escape close games? Allow me to plagiarize myself....
