Stopping the Bills could be defining moment for Falcons defense

The Atlanta Falcons will face the toughest opponent of their entire 2025 season when they host the Buffalo Bills this coming Monday night. Beating the Bills would be huge for the confidence of the young Falcons team and a defining moment of their season.

But to achieve that, they’ll have to do something few have done in recent years: hand the Bills two consecutive losses. Coming off a loss to the New England Patriots, the Bills are usually poised to bounce back. Since 2020, they are 17-5 in games immediately following a loss. Will the Falcons add a sixth loss to that record?

If they do, it’ll center on the Falcons’ defense stepping up and slowing down the Josh Allen-led Bills offense. Allen emerged from volatile beginnings into one of the NFL’s best passers in 2020 and has since spearheaded the NFL’s most potent scoring offense, as the Bills average a league-leading 29.2 points per game since then.

Man coverage is the usual formula against the Bills, but it’s far from effective

To slow down the offense, the Falcons will likely borrow from the Patriots’ blueprint of playing man coverage. According to PFF, Patriots cornerbacks Christian Gonzalez and Marcus Jones led the league in man coverage snaps. The Patriots’ strategy of dialing up man coverage is not unique to them, as many NFL teams have tried that strategy. The goal of man coverage is to increase the degree of difficulty by forcing Allen to throw into tighter windows while also challenging the Bills’ receivers to try and win more one-on-one matchups.

Falcons defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich is no stranger to this strategy, having faced Allen twice a year as the former defensive play-caller of the New York Jets since 2021. Per PFF, the Jets played man coverage on about a third of their defensive snaps in 2024. However, in both games against the Bills, where Ulbrich was serving as interim head coach, that number increased to about half their snaps. Emboldening Ulbrich to deploy a man-heavy defense on Monday night will be the impending healthy return of cornerback A.J. Terrell, who is by far the team’s most effective cover corner.

Falcons must stop both QB and RB to slow down the Bills’ rushing attack

So far this year, according to Sumer Sports, Allen has faced 59 man coverage snaps, the fifth most league-wide. Yet, despite this being a popular gameplan against the Bills, it’s not that effective. Allen leads the NFL in Expected Points Added (EPA) against man coverage, thanks in large part to burning defenses with his running, as he tops the league in EPA on runs against man coverage. If the Falcons are going to avoid being burned by Allen’s legs, they’ll need linebacker Divine Deablo to step up as a spy. Deablo’s coveted blend of size, length, and speed makes him the best equipped defender on the Falcons to slow down the nearly 240-pound Allen if and when he breaks into the open field.

But...