ClutchPoints
The Pittsburgh Steelers enter Week 15 in a familiar yet uneasy position. They sit atop the AFC North while still inspiring debate about just how dangerous they truly are. This season has been defined by inconsistency, physical football, and late-game resilience. Pittsburgh has once again found ways to win close games and control its destiny. As the playoff race tightens across the AFC, advanced models paint a nuanced picture. They respect the Steelers’ position in the standings while questioning the sustainability of their success. With division control on the line and little margin for error, the Steelers’ playoff picture is both promising and precarious.
The Steelers are having an up-and-down 2025 NFL season. However, they currently find themselves in first place in the AFC North with a 7–6 record as Week 15 approaches. A crucial 27–22 victory over the Baltimore Ravens in Week 14 allowed Pittsburgh to leapfrog its rivals despite being outgained on the ground. That underscored the Steelers’ knack for situational football. Sure, some analytical models such as DAVE rate them closer to league average at 1.5%. However, the win-loss record tells a more optimistic story. Most projections from ESPN and The Athletic give the Steelers a 67–76% chance of making the playoffs. That often slots them as the AFC’s fourth seed and division champions, making the final stretch of the season critical.
Here we will look at and discuss the Pittsburgh Steelers playoff picture, including their updated DVOA and The Athletic, ESPN model odds before Week 15.
According to FTN Fantasy’s DVOA and DAVE models, the Steelers are in solid shape to reach the postseason. They carry a 75.7% chance to make the playoffs entering Week 15. That number reflects Pittsburgh’s advantageous position atop the division and a favorable remaining path relative to other AFC bubble teams.
However, the underlying efficiency metrics tell a more cautious story. Pittsburgh’s 1.5% DAVE rating places them second in the AFC North behind Baltimore from an analytical standpoint. That suggests their performance has been closer to average than dominant. FTN’s models imply that while the Steelers have earned their record, their margin for error is slimmer than that of more analytically robust contenders. That makes continued wins essential to validate their standing.
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) offers a similarly optimistic but measured outlook. The model gives Pittsburgh a 67% chance to make the playoffs and an equally strong 67% chance of winning the AFC North. That alignment underscores how tightly the division race is tied to each remaining result.
Yes, the Steelers’ odds of securing a first-round bye remain below 1%. That said, ESPN still assigns them a 5% chance of reaching Super Bowl LX. That figure reflects belief in Pittsburgh’s defensive identity, coaching continuity, and experience in playoff-style games. If the Steelers can lock up the division, ESPN’s models suggest they could become a difficult out. That’s even without elite efficiency metrics.
**Steelers...
