Hogs Haven
For all the angst about Kliff Kingsbury’s play calling, the inability of the defense to stop the run, or the disappointing rushing attack, the Commanders had a 2-point lead and were seemingly in control with 3:10 remaining in the fourth quarter.
What happened next was the same thing that kept them from taking a commanding lead earlier in the game: a turnover on a botched handoff to RB Bill Croskey-Merritt. The Commanders’ third unanswered turnover of the game gave Bears’ RB D’Andre Swift the opportunity he needed to march his team into field goal position and steal the win on the final play of the game.
The Commanders’ opening drive ended on a Jayden Daniels interception, thrown from the Chicago 21 yard line. That resulted in a Bears’ field goal. On the second play of the next possession, Bill Croskey-Merritt fumbled at the Washington 35 yard line, setting up a Chicago touchdown. Rather than scoring a TD and possibly more, those turnovers allowed the Bears to build a 13-0 lead in the first quarter.
The Commanders had struggles on offense and defense, but the main reason they lost was turnovers. In 2024, there were 35 games with turnover differentials of 3 or more. The teams on the positive side of the turnover margin won 32 (91.4%) of those games. While not impossible, it is extremely difficult to come back from that kind of deficit. To their credit, the Commanders fought from the first two turnovers to establish an 8-point lead by early in the fourth quarter. But their clutch play was simply not enough to make up for their own mistakes.
What might have been lost on fans smarting from the loss in a very winnable game were some strong performances on offense, defense and special teams. In fact, as we’ll see in a second, the Commanders made the most big plays in the game, but the four biggest plays of the game all involved mistakes by Commanders. Let’s have a look at who stepped up and who didn’t in the search for silver linings in the Commanders’ painful home loss to the Chicago Bears.
This week, I’m bringing back a section I’ve run in the past – biggest plays of the game, as quantified by Expected Points Added (EPA). These are all the plays with EPA greater than + 2 or less than -2.
Q3, 3:03, 2nd and 9 at CHI 33: Jayden Daniels pass complete deep left to Luke McCaffrey for 33 yd touchdown. EPA 4.09
Q2, 9:33, 2nd and 10 at CHI 22: Jayden Daniels pass complete short left to Chris Moore for 22 yd touchdown. EPA 3.44
Q4, 12:49, 2nd and 6 at CHI 44: Jayden Daniels pass complete deep right to Jaylin Lane for 37 yards (penalty on CHI declined). EPA 3.21
Q3, 4.30, 4th and 2 at CHI 47: Jayden Daniels pass complete short left to Jeremy McNichols for 13 yards. **EPA...
