Baltimore Beatdown
Allen’s MVP odds skyrocket despite historic season from Lamar Jackson
As the NFL season progresses into the latter stages of the year, the discourse around who will end up being the league’s most valuable player tends to heat up.
It dominates the media cycle, often surpassing the talk around team success, big late season games and the playoff picture.
This year, the MVP race has narrowed to three candidates: Bills quarterback Josh Allen, Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson and Eagles running back Saquon Barkley. After Buffalo’s 48-42 win against the now 12-2 Detroit Lions, Allen’s MVP odds have skyrocketed to (-900) via FanDuel Sportsbook.
Just before the commencement of that game, Jackson completed a marvelous performance featuring five touchdowns and zero interceptions for the second time this season. Similarly, Allen has put together incredible performances over his past two games. In a loss to the Rams last week, Allen accounted for over 400 yards and six touchdowns (three on QB sneaks). Against Detroit, Allen followed it up with another brilliant display, gaining over 400 all-purpose yards and four touchdowns.
Allen’s play over the past few weeks has vaulted him to the top of the MVP rankings and has many media members declaring the race over. On Monday, ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky bluntly said as much. Similarly, former Ravens Defensive Coordinator Rex Ryan said, “MVP voters who don’t pick Josh Allen should lose their vote.”
Allen is having a terrific season. The Bills’ roster has undergone much turnover since last year and it wasn’t necessarily expected for them to be in the position they are in. Their success is largely due to Allen’s heroics — nobody would disagree with that.
However, the way the media is deliberately pushing one of the greatest seasons we have ever seen from an NFL QB under the rug is staggering. Jackson is in the midst of a special season. So special, that he is threatening Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning’s single season records for passer rating. Jackson currently ranks fourth behind Manning (2004) and Aaron Rodgers (2011, 2020). From a high-level view, he is in contention for the greatest quarterback season of all time from a passing perspective. Oh, and he also leads all quarterbacks in rushing as well.
Statistically speaking, Jackson has Allen’s number in every category. He has a higher completion percentage, more pass yards, yards per attempt, rush yards, touchdowns, fewer interceptions, a higher QBR, a higher PFF grade and a higher pass rating.
The only category Allen’s MVP case is stronger from a statistical standpoint is rushing touchdowns, 11 to three; albeit a majority of them have come on QB sneaks. If the current numbers hold, it would be an unprecedented scenario that would cause Jackson not to win the award.
Sure, the Bills have two more wins on the season, but that discrepancy in team success isn’t typically enough to outweigh the clear statistical edge Jackson has. If team record was all that mattered, then the award should go to Patrick Mahomes...
