Hogs Haven
Who could have predicted the greatest single-season turnaround in the cap era?
With Super Bowl LIX in the history books, and the embers burning out in what is left of downtown Philadelphia, it must be time to review my annual Bold Predictions for the Commanders’ season.
It is safe to say that very few Commanders fans, or anyone else for that matter, came even close to predicting how the season would unfold. For the first time in at least three decades, that was a good thing.
Ironically enough, given the unpredictable outcome of the Commanders’ season, this was the best I have ever done with my prognostications. Finally, after years of travelling the wasteland as a Washington football fan, it pays to be bold!
As a reminder for readers, the Bold Predictions are more about being bold than accurate. The fact that I got so many predictions right this year is just another reflection of how exceptional the first season turnaround was under the leadership of GM Adam Peters and HC Dan Quinn.
In the wake of the Commanders’ story-book season, 2023 seems like a distant memory. For those readers who need a reminder, in the final season of Ron Rivera’s tenure as head coach and head of personnel, QB Sam Howell led the NFL with 65 sacks for 449 yds (2nd place), taking sacks on 9.6% of dropbacks (7th place, min 7 starts).
In the offseason, there was a great deal of angst over the perception that first-year GM Adam Peters had not done enough to shore up the offensive line to protect his rookie QB. I based this prediction on three factors:
Note that my prediction carried an assumption that the Commanders would not make the playoffs – which would have seemed wildly optimistic at the start of the season.
Missed it by that much. Jayden Daniels took 47 sacks in the regular season, representing a 40% reduction from Sam Howell’s sack total. Had I gone with the percentage change, which was mentioned in the original prediction, I would have nailed it on the dot. But my prediction slightly undershot the sack total. Daniels’ ended up taking the sixth-most sacks among NFL QBs, which is not great, but was 21 sacks short of the NFL leader, first overall pick Caleb Williams. Daniels was 7th in sack rate at 8.92% of dropbacks among QBs with a minimum of 7 starts, and 11th in sack yards. Daniels ranks better in sack yardage than sack total or sack rate because many of the plays that were counted as...
