Field Gulls
The Seahawks were not a great tackling team as a whole under this new metric, but one player stood out above the rest.
It feels like there’s always a new metric being created with the ever-present availability of player-tracking data and evolving statistical models. This one from NextGenStats is all about tackle probability, which may or may not also be applicable to fishing.
Here are the details from NFL.com:
Before the 2024 season began, Next Gen Stats and Amazon Web Services (AWS) teamed up to create a new AI model that set out to estimate all 11 defenders’ chances of making a tackle every tenth of a second of every play from scrimmage. Enter Tackle Probability. With this new model, NGS can go beyond simple counting statistics, bringing contextual metrics like tackle opportunities and missed tackles to the forefront of player and team analysis.
The Seattle Seahawks’ tackling grade was good without being great, which I think aptly describes the season-long performance of Mike Macdonald’s defense. Seattle ranked 14th with a B- grade of 79.7. Apparently no extra credit was available to bump the average up to 80 at the last minute.
In the summary of Seattle’s ranking, there’s high praise for Ernest Jones IV but demerits for second-year corner Devon Witherspoon.
The Seahawks recorded the 11th-lowest missed tackle rate this season (12.1%), thanks largely to their ability to convert on first-tackle opportunities at the sixth-highest rate (61.4%). A major factor in that success was midseason acquisition Ernest Jones, who finished third on the team in tackles (94) in just 10 games. His missed tackle rate with the Seahawks (6.0%) ranked as the third-lowest in the NFL (minimum of 100 tackle attempts). While Jones helped shore up the defense, Devon Witherspoon had a tough year tackling, registering the second-most missed tackles among NFL cornerbacks (21) after posting just 11 as a rookie last season. Jones is set to hit free agency, but keeping the stud tackler in place would help sustain Seattle’s defensive progress.
Since this is a new metric we can’t compare it to the 2023 season, but I think the state of the Seahawks defense that year indicates that they wouldn’t have even sniffed 14th.
Missed tackles in itself are not inherently bad if it slows down a ball-carrier enough to provide gang-tackling help from teammates. I’m not worried too much about Witherspoon’s statistic, although he certainly had a few tougher moments in the open field compared to his rookie campaign.
The main story here is Ernest Jones IV. He was touted for his ability to consistently record tackles and he lived up to his billing in Seattle. Without Jones, it’s hard to imagine Tyrel Dodson and/or Jerome Baker playing to a similar standard. Jones, of course, is an unrestricted free agent and will likely command a salary aligned with the top linebackers in the NFL. The Seahawks gave up a fourth-round pick for him and barely have any linebacker depth to begin with, so it...
