Windy City Gridiron
This is a deeper dive on the draft trends and results of Chicago’s current GM
Ryan Poles made 21 draft selections in his first two years as general manager of the Chicago Bears, a fact which seems remarkable given that the prior GM had already traded away three picks from these two drafts before Poles ever took the job–not to mention the fact that Poles himself traded away 2023’s 32nd overall pick for Chase Claypool. In fact, Poles has made 34 selections in his four drafts as a general manager–more than 8 per class on average–despite his tendency to trade selections for active players somewhat frequently.
So Poles is making plenty of draft picks. How “good” is he, though, compared to the rest of the league, at actually finding quality players?
To be clear, the goal of this piece is not to determine if Poles has built a strong football team. Nor is it to go over the various trades he has made. Instead, the goal is simply to evaluate whether or not Poles has any particular strengths or weaknesses in terms of drafting talent when compared to available reference points.
Much of this piece will use the historical markers defined by The Draft Research Project, and so in that way this is a more expansive and comprehensive piece than my earlier midterm review of the 2022 draft class. However, this article will be looking for patterns in Poles’ decision-making across his early tenure.
In an attempt to be as thorough as possible, this article will broadly group selections as clear misses, questionable selections, potential hits, objective successes, and exceptional performers. It will note whether or not individual players have the potential to move between those categories. While it is exceptionally premature to evaluate the 2024 draft class, the five selections he made there will be referenced for context and to complete the picture of the Bears’ draft history during the entirety of the Poles-Eberflus partnership. Finally, a few general implications will be discussed.
Travis Bell (DL) and Kendall Williamson (S) have both performed below the median level that would be expected of a 7th-round pick at their positions, and neither of them ever played for Chicago. Bell has not played since 2023, and Williamson has only played 19 snaps after being elevated from the Chargers’ practice squad (he is currently on a reserve/future contract). If Trestan Ebner (RB) could prorate his performance from his first three years across the next two, he would still be below the median performance for his position in the sixth round; however, even that is unlikely as he currently isn’t on a roster. Trenton Gill, the first punter Poles drafted in his first three years as a GM, is also not on a roster.
If nothing changes, these four players will be out of the league in under two years. That’s a rate of 19%, almost exactly the 18% rate suggested by the Draft Research Project for the league as a...
