Buffalo Rumblings
The Buffalo Bills were dead. No hope. Fans were streaming to the exits in the fourth quarter when the team punted with 9:27 left down 15 points and the Baltimore Ravens running through the Bills’ defense like a hot knife through butter. The last time the Bills won a game where they trailed by 15 points in the fourth quarter was in the AFL in 1967.
Funny thing, though. The Bills came back to win the game in an improbable fashion. They scored 16 points in the final four minutes to win the game. According to Next Gen States, the Bills’ win probability got as low at 1.1% midway through the fourth quarter when they punted.
In NFL history entering Sunday, teams trailing by 15 points in the final four minutes were 3-2312. That’s a 0.13% winning percentage, so I’d say the 1.1% win probability was generous.
All it took was one of the best running backs in NFL history fumbling, Keon Coleman catching a tipped pass for a touchdown, and a whole lot of scared coaching by the Ravens.
