Ranking Patriots’ Playoff Scenarios Entering Week 18

Ranking Patriots’ Playoff Scenarios Entering Week 18
New England Patriots - NESN.com New England Patriots - NESN.com

The New England Patriots know they’ll be hosting a playoff game at Gillette Stadium.

Who? When? Why?

It’ll remain to be seen, as their final regular season matchup against the Miami Dolphins in Week 18 is just one of several factors that will ultimately determine the answer to those questions — so let’s take a look at the others and determine which are the best- and worst-case playoff scenarios for the folks at One Patriot Place.

1. First-Round BYE

WHAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN: Patriots win (vs. MIA), Broncos lose (vs. LAC)

I don’t think it’s necessary to spell this one out for you — earning an extra week to get healthy and securing home field throughout the playoffs is the goal of every single team prior to the start of the season.

The Patriots’ ability to even be in a position where that is a possibility is impressive, but they won’t receive very much help in that effort. The Los Angeles Chargers have already announced that they will rest starting quarterback Justin Herbert for Sunday’s matchup with the Denver Broncos.

2. vs. Los Angeles Chargers

WHAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN: Patriots win (vs. MIA), Broncos win (vs. LAC), Bills win (vs. NYJ) OR Patriots loss (vs. MIA), Broncos win (vs. LAC), Bills win (vs. NYJ), Titans win (vs. JAX) and Colts win (vs. HOU)

Los Angeles’ decision to rest starters all but points to the fact that it prefers playing New England over the likes of the Denver Broncos, Jacksonville Jaguars, Pittsburgh Steelers or Baltimore Ravens.

New England likely feels the same way…

The Chargers will not only be without offensive linemen Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater, but will enter that potential matchup coming off a brutal stretch in which they faced the Philadelphia Eagles (overtime win), Kansas City Chiefs (win), Dallas Cowboys (win), Houston Texans (loss) and Broncos.

3. vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

WHAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN: Patriots loss (vs. MIA), Chargers win (vs. DEN), Bills win (vs. NYJ), Titans win (vs. JAX) and Texans win (vs. IND)

The Jaguars are absolutely rolling, having ripped off seven consecutive wins entering the regular season finale. Jacksonville also has just four total losses one the season, while only one came by more than one score.

The Patriots won’t want to be playing a team with that kind of momentum.

4. vs. Buffalo Bills

WHAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN: Patriots win (vs. MIA), Broncos win (vs. LAC) and Bills lose (vs. NYJ) OR Patriots loss (vs. MIA), Broncos win (vs. LAC), Bills win (vs. NYJ), Jaguars win (vs. TEN) and Texans win (vs. IND)

I’d listen to an argument on either side, as you could either be in favor or extremely against playing the same team three times in the same season. I always end up viewing it as a coin flip, however, as both teams have the same level of familiarity and –at least in this case — have proven they can beat the other.

Bills quarterback Josh Allen is...