Sportsnaut
We’re getting closer and closer to the start of the 2026 NFL season as training camps will open at the end of this month.
In the NFL, anything can happen on a year-to-year basis. In 2025, we saw two teams, the New England Patriots and Chicago Bears, go from worst to first in their respective divisions.
We rarely see the opposite scenario happen, where a team goes from first to worst, as there should be enough talent on the roster to prevent a dramatic dropoff.
But as we mentioned, anything can happen in the NFL. Although it’s unlikely that any of the eight division winners from last season will finish last in 2026, here’s our ranking of the chances of this happening.
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The Carolina Panthers were fortunate to win the NFC South with an 8-9 record as both the Atlanta Falcons and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers had the same record. Although the New Orleans Saints finished last in the division, they started to show promise, winning four out of their last five games with rookie quarterback Tyler Shough.
The Panthers’ leading rusher last season, Rico Dowdle, is now a Pittsburgh Steeler, and there are still questions about whether Bryce Young is a franchise quarterback. Given how evenly matched all the teams are in the NFC South, Carolina is the most likely team to go from first to worst in their division.
The Chicago Bears went from worst in the division in 2024 to first in 2025 thanks to rookie head coach Ben Johnson and second-year quarterback Caleb Williams. But now they have the toughest strength of schedule, and unlike last season, they won’t sneak up on anybody
A big reason why their schedule is so difficult is because every team in the NFC North had a winning record. The Bears went 7-4 in one-possession games last season; if they do the reverse this season, they can easily go from the top to the bottom in the division.
For the first time since 2006, Mike Tomlin is not the head coach of the Steelers as Mike McCarthy enters his first season in the Steel City. Steelers ownership is hopeful that by reuniting McCarthy with quarterback Aaron Rodgers, the two can find the magic they had 16 years ago when they won a Super Bowl with the Packers.
But Rodgers is 42 and several key players on their defense, such as T.J. Watt, Jalen Ramsey, and Cameron Heyward, are all over 30 years old. Regression from an aging roster is a strong possibility this season, but since the Cleveland Browns are in the same division, this prevents the Steelers from being number one on this list.
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