Turf Show Times
If Rams draft a QB in the first round, they should proceed with caution
If the Los Angeles Rams are going to target a quarterback early in next year’s draft, as many people expect them to, the cautionary tales go back as far as when they were recruited as high school graduates to some of the NFL’s most recent first round picks. Not only could development be getting stunted in college over the past five years, but the league hasn’t done themselves any favors by using early first round picks on projects and passers who never learned how to read a defense.
Of the nine quarterbacks drafted in the first round between 2021 and 2023, five of them are already on their third teams.
Before the Rams go into the 2026 draft with two first round picks, gung-ho to find Matthew Stafford’s successor, it’s important to look back at what recent history has taught us about modern day first round quarterbacks. While the 2024 rookie class offers reasons for optimism, they have to walk over a trail of massive busts to complete the journey that will make teams feel confident again.
Think of it like the future of the box office: You may feel good about the last new movie you saw in theaters compared to some of the schlock we had to put up with in 2021, but the U.S. still has 5,700 fewer screens than they did before the pandemic.
This is a ranking of the nine QBs drafted in the first round from 2021-2023 and a reminder of what’s been lost.
(I won’t include the 2024 class because they haven’t had enough time in the NFL yet, but I’ll share a rough, too-early ranking at the end of the article. If I was including 2024, then Jayden Daniels would be ranked first on this list. Maybe the 2024 class is hope for the future because the three years before it indicate an extremely dark past.)
The Texans won 11 games between 2020-2022, so just the fact that Houston has gone 19-13 and won a playoff game in both seasons with Stroud is enough reason to believe they have a legitimate franchise quarterback. Stroud led the NFL in passing yards per game and interception rate as a rookie, but perhaps more importantly quieted the skeptics who were worried that he can’t improvise when a play breaks down.
That being said, the absolute best quarterback on this list was downright below average in year two, literally ranking below-average in virtually every passing metric, including completion rate, touchdowns, adjusted net yards per attempt, sack percentage, and passer rating.
Stroud’s TD% dipped from 4.6 to 3.8, while his INT% more than doubled from 1% to 2.3%.
People who are fans of Stroud may push back on sharing these findings and say that his offensive coordinator (fired) was bad and his supporting cast was even worse. That’s fine, I have absolutely no skin in the game, I’m...
