Rams were never “a drive away” from beating Eagles in playoffs

It’s time to set the record straight about Rams’ season-ending playoff loss

We’ve heard all offseason from fans and pundits alike that the Los Angeles Rams were simply “a drive away” from taking down the eventual Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles.

I wouldn’t ordinarily look so far back in the rearview mirror, especially with training camp underway; however, this single game is being incorrectly used as a barometer for predicting LA’s success in 2025. Instead of wiping the slate clean and rolling the ball back up the hill, many are gauging the Rams’ incremental improvements and using this lone drive as the measuring stick.

It’s preposterous.

Everyone you know is getting this wrong

Why the game wasn’t as close as you remember

According to ESPN Analytics’ measure of win probability, the Eagles were firmly in the driver’s seat for the entire game. The Rams never reached 50% likelihood.

A few important shifts within this matchup:

• Rams had their best odds late into the third quarter (48.5%) before a Kyren Williams fumble that was returned to the LA 10-yard line (22.1% thereafter).
• With roughly five minutes left in the fourth quarter down 15-22, the Rams brough out Ethan Evans to punt on fourth-and-ten from their own 30-yard line after a three-and-out. Matthew Stafford was sacked on first down. After the punt, Philly had a 90.6% win probability.
• Saquon Barkley ripped off a 78-yard rushing touchdown on the very next play to make it a 15-28 contest. The Eagles’ probability of victory shifted to 97.7%.
• Stafford connects with Colby Parkinson on a short touchdown. Rams stop Barkley on the following drive on third-and-19. Philly still 80.9% likely to win the game.
• Rams drive to the Eagles’ 21-yard line, pushing LA to around 46% chance of victory.
• Same drive on third-and-two, Jalen Carter sacks Stafford. Eagles now at 86.5% probability to win.

ESPN’s analytics take into account that—even if the Rams scored a touchdown on their final offensive possession—the Eagles would only need a field goal to steal away victory. Sure, the Rams defense had the Eagle’s number for most of the second half; however, you’d take those odds in the postseason when the margins are ever-slim.

To pretend the Rams were only a drive away fails to acknowledge that Philadelphia dominated in terms of win probability for most of this game.

Blame where blame is due

The snowy conditions were tough, certainly. However, all offseason Stafford has been universally praised for his playoff effort in Philadelphia. Advanced metrics simply do not support this take.

The divisional round was easily one of Stafford’s worst performances over the 2024 season. By Pro Football Focus (PFF) offensive grading only, this was tied for the veteran’s fifth-worst outing of the year.

Stafford’s four turnover-worthy plays marked his season-high total, tied with Week 9 at the Seattle Seahawks. The box score is favorable in this regard as Stafford threw zero interceptions and only lost a single fumble. It...