Rams vs. Bears Divisional Round: Quentin Lake is the key to LA’s defense

Now that we’re full-on into the playoffs, it’s time to stop looking in the rearview with our Secret Superstars series, and start looking forward to the next game with Postseason X-Factors. The principle is the same — using game tape and metrics to uncover those hidden gems for every team who are primed to bring their best when their franchises need it the most.

The Los Angeles Rams face off against the Chicago Bears in the Divisional Round after their comeback win over the Carolina Panthers in the Wild Card frame. And they now have a major factor back on the field in the person of defensive back Quentin Lake, whose injury absence had a clear negative effect on Chris Shula’s defense.

Football is the most interdependent sport, so when we’re discussing the effect of not having one particular player on your roster, you have to look at a lot of different things. Just because things are falling apart on one side of the ball, it doesn’t automatically mean that things would be this or that much better with Player X back in the fold. While Player X has been out, Player Y could have been playing with his own serious injuries, and Player Z, who is replacing Player X until he’s healthy, simply isn’t qualified to run his coaches’ concepts.

But in the case of Rams defensive back Quentin Lake, the issues in his absence were pretty clear. Lake suffered an elbow injury in the 21-19 Week 11 loss to the Seahawks, and from then through the end of the regular season, L.A.’s defense was not the same. The Rams went from 8-2 to 12-5 without Lake. In the second half of the season, their defensive EPA rose from -0.04 to 0.0 (defensive expected points added is better when it’s negative), the defensive DVOA dropped from third to ninth, pass defense DVOA dropped from second to eighth, and the run defense DVOA dropped from fourth to 14th.

Plus, Lake got himself a new three-year, $38.25 million contract extension on January 1 — while he was still coming back from injury. That’s quite a statement.

Lake returned for the Wild Card Round, and while there were a few rusty spots, his value was very much in evidence.

Why is Lake so key to what the Rams want to do? Sean McVay will tell you that Lake is crucial on a team with a lot of younger defensive backs with his ability to communicate Shula’s concepts on the field, but the fourth-year man, selected in the sixth round of the 2022 draft out of UCLA, isn’t just there for his big brain. This season when healthy, Lake has allowed 38 catches on 55 targets for 420 yards, two touchdowns, one interception, nine pass breakups, and an opponent passer rating of 96.0, Lake also has a sack, seven pressures, 51 tackles, 19 stops, two tackles for loss, and a forced fumble.

Maybe it’s the football smarts he got growing up — he’s...