Rams schedule thoughts: The Opening Quarter

Rams open the regular season hosting CJ Stroud and the Houston Texans

The Los Angeles Rams kickoff training camp later this month on July 24th. The regular season is just around the corner.

In the meantime, let’s take a deep dive into LA’s 2025 slate of games. We’ll break the overall schedule into natural chunks based on strength of opposition and key matchups:

Weeks 1-4, The Opening Quarter: Texans, Titans, Eagles, Colts

Weeks 5-8, Litmus Test Before the Bye: 49ers, Ravens, Jaguars

Weeks 9-13, Clash Against the NFC South: Saints, 49ers, Seahawks, Buccaneers, Panthers

Weeks 14-18, A Potentially Tough Close: Cardinals, Lions, Seahawks, Falcons, Cardinals

For now, we’ll focus on the first four games and I’ll link back to each post in the next installments.

The Opening Quarter

Week 1 vs Houston Texans; Sunday, Sept 7th

There are certainly easier draws in the opening week than hosting CJ Stroud and the Texans.

While most fans believe that Stroud took a major step back in his second NFL campaign, the advanced analytics simply don’t bear out that idea. You can chalk up the sophomore slump to either good luck in his first season or turnover regression in 2024.

Advanced metrics from Pro Football Focus (PFF). BTT’s are big-time throws. TWP’s are turnover-worthy plays.

Stroud, 2023:

Raw statistics - 64.0% completion, 26 TD’s, 5 INT’s

PFF metrics - 74.2% ADJ comp, 26 BTT’s (4.4%), 18 TWP’s (2.8%)

Stroud, 2024:

Raw statistics - 63.6% completion, 21 TD’s, 13 INT’s

PFF metrics - 72.2% ADJ comp, 27 BTT’s (4.3%), 21 TWP’s (2.8%)

In short, the consensus on Stroud was probably too optimistic coming out of his rookie season. He was fortunate from a turnover perspective. His NFL record of throwing 191 pass attempts without an interception to start his career is overblown and threw fuel on the fire. The regression was more noticeable because the Houston ecosystem took a step back in his second year, including an ineffective run game and poor pass protection. There were also significant injuries amongst the pass catching corps.

There’s plenty else about the Texans we can talk about. The main takeaway for now is to not discount Stroud because the media narratives aren’t as positive heading into 2025.

Week 2 at Tennessee Titans; Sunday, Sept 14th

It’s positive for LA to see rookie quarterback Cam Ward in only his second career game. Even if things go south against the Texans in Week 1, the Rams can almost bank on leaving Tennessee with a win under their belt.

The Titans have some impressive pieces, but overall this roster is still in pretty poor shape. At least you can give them credit for surrounding Ward with capable (albeit older) pass catchers in Calvin Ridley, Tyler Lockett, Chig Okonkwo, and Van Jefferson.

Other than the Saints later on this season, this should be as sure of a win as the Rams will see all year.

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