Turf Show Times
Should the Rams give Kyren Williams an extension?
Over the next year, there will be a lot of discussion on whether or not the Los Angeles Rams should extend running back Kyren Williams. While I still have your attention in the early parts of this column, I’ll preface this by saying that there is no denying Williams’ impact in the Rams offense. The question here is whether or not his impact is circumstantial and if he is a running back worth giving an extension.
That’s especially the case after the Philadelphia Eagles and Baltimore Ravens had so much success paying Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry. Running the ball has become more important over the last few seasons. The top seven teams in rushing EPA made the playoffs as did eight of the top ten teams in success rate. Six of the top eight running backs who led the NFL in rushing EPA per attempt were on teams that made the playoffs. The same can be said about six of the top-10 running backs in success rate.
Still, is that more about the individual running backs or the rushing ecosystems themselves? It’s no secret that the running back position is heavily dependent on the offensive line and the scheme that they are inserted into. It’s how Barkley can go from averaging less than four yards per carry in two of his last three years with the New York Giants and then be the Offensive Player of the Year with the Eagles. Barkley has also been able to take the Eagles rushing attack that was already very good to new heights.
Over the past decade, there has been a “running backs don’t matter” movement. Essentially, that refers to an argument that the running back position is less valuable than others in the modern NFL. With an increased emphasis on passing in combination with the importance of a strong offensive line, the position is less valuable and too dependent on exterior factors. There’s also a much higher injury rate and shorter “prime” at the position which the Rams experienced with Todd Gurley. If a team can build a strong ecosystem, they can often find success with a less-star caliber running back. Five of the top ten running backs in success rate were drafted on day three or later. One of those five is Williams.
There haven’t been reasons to pay a running back big money ever since the Gurley contract failed as almost a warning to NFL executives. It’s why the Giants didn’t give a blank check to Barkley. While they could have used an explosive play-maker, there was little chance that Barkley would have moved the needle when it comes to the success of that team. Every year running backs are found late in the draft. Tyrone Tracy was one of them.
As Mike Tanier wrote on the Too Deep Zone substack,
“The Running Backs Don’t Matter movement was always silly and shrill, a bumper-sticker conclusion drawn from some irrefutable-but-subtle analytical...
