Turf Show Times
If you take the six worst games by the Los Angeles Rams against the deep pass this season, they are 3-3. In every other contest, they’re 8-0. Chris Shula’s defense must shut down Sam Darnold for the second time this season to beat the Seahawks on Thursday, otherwise L.A.‘s defensive coordinator could be guaranteed a return to the Rams in 2026 without any other job offers.
The Rams defense is on a cold streak right now. Can Shula get it right in 24 hours?
By expected points added (EPA), a stat from Next Gen Stats that essentially just measures the value of each play relative to the score, down, distance, and game situation, the Rams just had their worst game of the season against deep passes:
Jared Goff went 5-of-5 for 95 yards and 2 touchdowns on throws over 20 air yards.
Only one team allowed more big plays in Week 15 than the Rams defense did…The Detroit Lions.
That EPA of +1.89 per pass attempt against Goff is L.A.’s worst game of the season. Unsurprisingly, the -17.65 defensive EPA for the entire game was also the Rams worst game of the season.
This comes two weeks after the Rams’ second-worst game of the season (-14.28 EPA), a 31-28 loss to the Panthers. Sandwiched in between was a middling, average defensive performance against the Cardinals (0.21 EPA), a very bad offense. Despite blowing out Arizona, L.A. also had their second-worst special teams game (-6.66 EPA) of the year last week.
As such, a defense that still ranks third in points allowed and fourth in points per drive allowed over the course of the entire season…how now allowed the 10th-MOST points in the past three games. It is only thanks to scoring the most points in the league that L.A. has won two of those games.
Can Sean McVay count on out-punching his opponents every week, especially in the playoffs? For the Rams to be the most complete team in the league, as many believe that they are, McVay and Shula need to figure out a way to start ducking some of these body blows.
By intercepting him four times in the first meeting, L.A. has forced Darnold to abandon his tendency to attack tight windows. Per Benjamin Solak, Darnold went from the best tight-window passer in the league before the Rams to missing his last 9 such throws and going 2-for-20 since playing the Rams.
That’s a great performance by the Rams defense, especially considering L.A.‘s matchup against Darnold on Thursday, but is it a great sign of things to come?
Darnold was terrible against the Rams in the first game and he averaged just 4.7 yards per deep pass with -1.41 EPA/deep pass against L.A. the last time. He was intercepted four times. He was disrupted. That’s a great skin on the wall for Shula, but that’s in the past. Given how mediocre...
