Silver And Black Pride
The 1-2 Raiders face off against the 1-2 Bears on Sunday. EPA, or expected points added, signifies a teams efficiency and overall ability to consistently make an impact on a play by play basis. The definition of success rate is defined as a play where the offense gains at least 4 yards in either a pass or rush situation. Defensively, success rate is how often the team is allowing that rate to occur. All rankings are prior to TNF.
The Raiders are currently posting a -0.085 EPA/play, which ranks 26th in the NFL. The negative impact for their offense largely comes in the run game where Las Vegas is posting a -0.300 EPA/rush. Essentially if the Raiders rush the ball 23 times in a game they are losing a touchdown. Currently Las Vegas ranks 31st in EPA/rush with only the Patriots (-.400) ranking below them. Additionally, the Raiders rank 31st in success rate at just 29%. As a passing offense, the Raiders are doing slightly better which is to be expected. They rank 18th in the NFL for EPA/dropback at 0.032 but 29th in success rate at 40.5%. Despite their poor offensive showing through three weeks, this week’s matchup is in the Raiders favor with the Bears defense ranking 26th in overall EPA/play on defense at 0.089, nearly the complete opposite of the Raiders. As a passing defense, the Bears who are without star CB Jaylon Johnson, and potentially others due to injury rank 23rd at .174 EPA/dropback. Chicago’s struggles continue as a run defense ranking 23rd at a -0.028 EPA/play. In terms of success rate, the Bears are allowing a 51.4% success rate as a pass defense and a 46.2% in terms of rushing offense.
The Raiders offense matches up at an interesting level vs the Bears, Las Vegas is able to get explosive plays which increase their EPA but they struggle to maintain consistent success in both the run and passing attacks causing inflated numbers and inconsistency. The Bears defense has done a good job at limiting overall explosive plays but they do struggle on a play by play basis ranking near the bottom of the NFL in total defense, especially on 3rd downs. For the first time this season, the Raiders will face a defense that is bottom 8 in terms of run defense which hopefully will allow for the Raiders to get their run offense to get a little push and find some success for what has been a poor running attack. In terms of a passing offense, Las Vegas’ struggles hopefully will improve as they can limit the turnovers and get Brock Bowers more involved (who seems to be coming along from injury). The biggest issue for the Raiders will be consistency, as they rank 32nd in success rate at 36.4% showcasing a reliance on explosive plays largely due to injuries and a horrific running attack.
Just as we all expected even 2...
