Arrowhead Pride
Deciphering what this rough defensive stretch means for 2024’s outlook.
At the beginning of the season — even with the Kansas City Chiefs having close wins — it felt like the team had a clear formula for success that was guiding them in those games: play efficient offense that keeps you ahead of the sticks and rely on a strong run defense that gets teams into third downs.
When you get to third down, the combination of Patrick Mahomes on offense and Steve Spagnuolo calling the defense with good personnel set Kansas City apart from other teams. The Chiefs couldn’t win with explosive plays that create blowouts; instead, it was a down-to-down machine that would grind you down and outexecute you.
Offensively, it still feels like the Chiefs have a formula similar to early in the year. Not having wide receiver Rashee Rice has changed some of the variables, but broadly speaking, the running game has been efficient, and Mahomes has been magical on third down.
Tight end Travis Kelce is finding a rhythm, and wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins continues to be integrated well into the offense. They definitely have limitations — particularly at offensive tackle — but I still feel they’re in a good spot on offense.
Defensively, things have not been the same recently. The Chiefs got out to a fast start defensively, looking somewhat similar to the defense they were last year. The run defense was fantastic, not allowing teams to get to favorable looks on third downs, where Spagnuolo would call his most creative pressures and coverages alongside having game-changing players like defensive tackle Chris Jones up front.
Recently, this hasn’t been the case. Since the San Francisco 49ers game after the bye, the Chiefs have been well below-average on defense. Here are the Chiefs' defensive splits before and after the 49ers game based on expected points added (EPA) and success rate.
The run defense has still been a good unit across the year and remains one, but where the Chiefs are struggling right now is their pass defense.
To me, there are three core issues with the Chiefs’ pass defense right now:
These issues relate in some ways, but let’s start with Watson's injury, which is reasonable since he got hurt right in the 49ers game. Watson was playing good football before the injury, giving the Chiefs two good outside cornerbacks who could hold up on an island. At the very most, they only had to play a third cornerback like Nazeeh Johnson, Joshua Williams or Chris Rolland-Wallace situationally since the Chiefs would bring Chamarri Conner in their Nickel packages. They only had to protect one defensive back in their Dime packages, which would free their safeties to blitz or rotate in specific ways since they didn’t have to...
