Field Gulls
It is the quiet time of year in the NFL. No training camps, no games, generally no big trades or free agent signings. There’s a lot to look forward to, and as the reigning Super Bowl Champions, the Seattle Seahawks sit atop the mountain until Week 1 of the regular season. At that point it is a blank slate and all teams are on an even playing field vying for the prize. With team changes, odds on who will win the next Lombardi being calculated in Las Vegas, where do all the the teams rank going into the new season? Let’s find out!
For the Hawks Eye Podcast with Bryce Coutts, Bryce and I wanted to create a Preseason Power Rankings that was as unbiased as possible. It would take into account some stats from the 2025 season, and use a couple statistics that would look to the new season. That way, even if we do not agree with the results, it would start conversations. Here are the markers we decided on using: Vegas Super Bowl odds, DVOA, EPA, and Strength of Schedule.
How does Las Vegas calculate the Super Bowl odds? They start by looking at statistical power rankings, then they add live betting market data to those statistical power rankings to balance financial liability. The oddsmakers in Las Vegas will evaluate each team’s metrics, historical data, player injuries. Throughout the preseason, the regular season, and playoffs, they will tweak the lines to make it as accurate as possible and minimize their risk. The current odds have the Seahawks as the third most likely to make the Super Bowl, though at the time of creating the power rankings they were second.
What is DVOA? DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. It was created by FTN Fantasy‘s Aaron Schatz, and it is a metric that evaluates both a team and player efficiency. DVOA compares every single play to the league average, adjusting as needed for down, distance, field position, and the strength of the opposing teams defense. The more positive the score percentage, the better for offense and total DVOA. If you were to look at defense DVOA ranking, the more negative the score percentage, the better. The Seahawks were the number one total DVOA team in 2025 with a 41.3% DVOA score.
EPA, or Expected Points Added, is a metric that measures how much value a play adds to an offense’s scoring potential. They base the metric on historical data such as down, distance, and field position, much like DVOA. They give every scenario a point value for the likeliness of the offense’s scoring potential. On offense for 2025, the Seahawks ranked 15th in EPA, and on defense they ranked second.
How is strength of schedule determined? They combine the win percentages of the teams opponents from the previous season. Seahawks have the 19th hardest schedule based on this metric.
Based on all of the metrics...
