The Falcoholic
As the regular season approaches, it’s only right for predictions to be made. It’s not about purely predicting records. Assessing how players will fare on the field is another way to prepare for the upcoming season. Instead of picking games, let’s dive into where the Falcons will succeed and fall short this season.
To keep a solid balance, I’ve added five positive predictions for statistical achievements and impressive individual developments. Five negative predictions are here, too, identifying which specific players and overall personnel groups fail to meet expectations. Some of these selections will be looked back on fondly. Some of these picks will be laughed out of the room. Some will be unfortunately accurate, or thankfully miss the mark for the Falcons in their playoff pursuit.
Michael Penix Jr. throws 27 touchdowns: Predicting a quarterback with only three NFL starts to throw 30 touchdowns is a bit over the top. While a talented passer aligned with an offensive coordinator who wants to be aggressive is going to create endless possibilities, let’s take into account that one of the league’s most electrifying players is in Atlanta’s backfield. There are only so many touchdowns that can go around.
Penix Jr. proves to be a success in his first full season as a starter. His astonishing arm strength, knack for using his eyes to force defenders out of position, and ability to make tight window throws will result in numerous highlight-reel plays. The completion percentage won’t be as high as you’d like to see from a franchise quarterback due to his throwing motion and inconsistent touch. Penix will still flourish, throwing for the most touchdowns by a Falcons quarterback since Matt Ryan in 2018.
Jessie Bates hits double-digits in turnovers: The stellar safety sounded invigorated when talking about Jeff Ulbrich’s defense with Brian Baldinger and Cameron Wolfe. The mixture of coverage alignments and added schematic aggression will give Bates more opportunities to make game-changing plays. The defensive scheme was either too complacent or disoriented last season, forcing Bates to play hero mode at times and take frequent risks.
While Bates impressively produced nine combined turnovers (interceptions, fumbles forced, fumbles recovered), the lack of support around him was glaring. An upgraded pass rush and enhanced coverage variety schematically will put Bates in better positions to force turnovers. After two consecutive seasons with nine combined turnovers, Bates will get over the hump and earn double digits. It would be something if he surpassed his career-high four forced fumbles from last season.
Inserting Ryan Neuzil into the starting lineup by default goes wrong: It’s somewhat understandable that the Falcons didn’t aggressively pursue acquiring a center. They needed to focus on improving the defense across all three levels. There weren’t many quality centers in free agency, with Drew Dalman being the most coveted player on the market. Once it became evident that the franchise was set on drafting defensive players, Neuzil became the most realistic option.
That decision will prove to be costly. Neuzil struggled with diagnosing...
