Predicting The 2026 Week 1 Starting Quarterback For Every Team

The quarterback position is so important for teams that when there’s a change of leadership for rebuilding teams, there’s a tendency to divide the to-do list into two parts: 1) find a quarterback, 2) fix everything else. When teams are sketching out what they expect the next season to look like, quarterback is the first domino that has to fall for everything else to settle into place.

Every six months or so, I like to take a look at the quarterback landscape around the NFL to try and get a feel for what moves might be imminent. It’s like a big game of musical chairs, with 32 starting jobs and 32 backup slots. Part of that involves figuring out which teams are settled at the position, but it’s the nature of the NFL for most teams to feel like there’s room for improvement. Following through on that is always easier said than done.

The other half of the exercise is figuring out which quarterbacks could be on the move, either in free agency or the trade market, or which new quarterbacks entering the league via the draft have the potential to shake up the picture. The supply is always less than the demand.

The last time I did this exercise in June, I split the league’s notable passers into a variety of different categories:

• Elite: The consensus cream of the crop
• Established: Plenty of debate about how exactly to sort out the hierarchy, but passers with some demonstrated level of success and (more importantly) significant financial commitment
• Arrow up: Quarterbacks on rookie contracts who look promising
• Solid veterans: The NFL middle class; starting quarterbacks who lag behind their peers in perception and salary
• The old guys: The retirement cliff has been pushed later and later, but these guys are getting close to it. Generally 35 and older.
• Jury out: Quarterbacks on rookie contracts who it’s not clear yet if they can be successful
• Reclamation projects: Quarterbacks who have fallen on hard times and need some TLC to recapture their potential
• Bridge QBs: Short-term solutions who are competent enough to start, not good enough to be long-term solutions
• Backups & dart throws: No. 2 quarterbacks and young guys who might still have a shot to develop

There were 15 quarterbacks who landed in the first three categories, everyone else slotted in somewhere below. The Browns, Steelers, Saints, Colts, Seahawks, Giants, Jets and Panthers were teams flagged as potentially being in the market, with the Dolphins, Cardinals and Rams dark horses to join them. With 11 weeks of the regular season in the books, some of those quarterback situations have been resolved, while others have joined the watch list.

Today I’m going to take a slightly different perspective on the same topic. I’ll be going through each team’s quarterback situation and projecting whether the current starter will be under center in Week 1 of the 2026 season. If not, I’ll take my best...