Arrowhead Pride
Last year, we crunched the numbers on the Kansas City Chiefs’ offense at Arrowhead Pride, attempting to predict the overs/under lines for statistical totals. While we were closer than we were with the defense, we by no means hit the nail on the head in our predictions.
We were bullish on nearly every single metric in 2025, except for rushing touchdowns, which we were correctly skeptical of: we took the under on a total of 17.75 rushing touchdowns.
However, we were quite a bit off from our prediction that quarterback Patrick Mahomes would throw over 29 touchdowns. While injuries definitely played a role in that missed prediction, it wasn’t the only one we were off on. We were also off on our prediction that Kansas City would score more than 26.43 points per game.
Last season, we did our best to ground our predictions in historical data, but this year I’m going to simplify things and go with a metric I have far more faith in: my gut and the team’s vibe.
So let’s dive in and see where we land on how the offense will do in 2026:
Last season: 23
This section should just read “Patrick Mahomes touchdowns.”
I don’t think there are many in Chiefs Kingdom who expect Justin Fields to add meaningfully to this total (even if he does start the first couple of weeks of the season). In 2025, Fields threw just seven touchdowns in nine games played.
Most seasons, I would say that Mahomes is the wildcard in all of this, having the ability to reach into his bag of tricks and drop five touchdowns on an opponent at the drop of a hat. He still does.
He is also recovering from a torn ACL.
There are also other considerations on this team, like actually having a legitimately explosive running game. The addition of free agent backs Kenneth Walker and rookie Emmett Johnson could cut into the number of passing touchdowns the Chiefs have in the red zone.
The third unknown in all of this is the Chiefs’ receiving corps, which underperformed in 2025 and does not look meaningfully better in 2026. This year’s offense has one wide receiver who spent the offseason rehabbing a knee injury in jail, and an undersized Xavier Worthy who struggled to stay healthy in 2025. These are these “proven” playmakers.
Projected passing touchdowns: 24
The Chiefs would have undoubtedly surpassed this mark if Mahomes started all 17 games in 2025. But he didn’t, and we don’t know if he will in 2026. This, mixed with the poaching the running backs are sure to do in the red zone, has me feeling skiddish about this stat line this year.
Last season: 15
The Chiefs were 20th in the NFL in rushing touchdowns in 2025, and this was mostly because scrapping for dirty yards in short-yardage situations was the one thing running back Kareem Hunt still excelled at in 2025. Without his...
