Predicting overs and unders for the 2025 Chiefs’ offense

Let’s try to predict how Kansas City’s offense will fare in 2025.

The NFL Draft is now well in the rearview mirror.

We now know the Kansas City Chiefs’ full schedule — and, for the most part, what the 2025 roster will look like. That makes it a perfect time to take a preliminary look at the upcoming season and project how the Chiefs’ offense will perform in 2025.

We’ll examine five key statistical categories and assign an over-under number for each. Then we’ll predict whether the Chiefs will likely hit or miss it.

Note: While we heavily considered past statistics, this project is, by definition, rooted in projections and educated guesses.

Passing touchdowns

There are many factors to consider when projecting passing numbers because — unlike a stat such as sacks or tackles — you have to account not only for who the quarterback is but also for the talent of the receiving corps and the unpredictable variable of human error on all sides.

Here are some of the key elements I took into consideration when arriving at this number:

• Past statistical performance
• Strength of schedule
• Plus-minus variation based on roster moves (WR improvements, Kelce’s regression, and an upgraded offensive line)
• Strength of opponent pass defense

Based on these factors, we calculated an overall expected average between the two models and used this as our projected over/under.

Based on past statistical performance, quarterback Patrick Mahomes is projected to throw 26.66 touchdowns this year.

If we average the number of passing touchdowns allowed by the Chiefs’ 2025 opponents last season, we arrive at 26 touchdowns.

Factoring in the improved health of Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown, along with the additions of Jalen Roylas, Jaylon Moore and Josh Simmons, I added +5 touchdowns to the projection.

Then, I subtracted -2 touchdowns to account for the loss of Joe Thuney and the expected regression of Travis Kelce.

This model is built on the following assumptions:

• A balanced mix of easy and difficult opponents
• Moderate improvement in offensive personnel
• Kelce aging, but still productive
• No major injuries

Projected passing touchdowns: 29.66

My take: Over

We will see the return of MVPat, and the rest of the NFL will suffer.

Rushing touchdowns

While the rushing projection is a little easier to calculate, you still have to account for several factors that will impact the Chiefs’ ground game in 2025.

For this projection, we considered past statistical performance, as well as:

• Changes to the offensive line
• Addition of new personnel
• Improved passing, which may lead to fewer running plays
• Improved passing, which may also lead to more red zone opportunities

The Chiefs’ 2025 opponents gave up an average of 17.79 rushing touchdowns in 2024.

Based on the Chiefs’ past statistical performance in this area, they are projected to score 15.71 rushing touchdowns in 2025.

When I looked at the additions to the roster and factored in the loss of...