Arrowhead Pride
Let’s try to predict how Kansas City’s defense will fare in 2025.
Last week, we crunched the numbers and tried to predict overs and unders for the Kansas City Chiefs offense. For the most part, we took a pretty positive outlook on this Chiefs team offensively. But if Kansas City hopes to push for a fourth consecutive Super Bowl appearance, it must remain one of the league’s top defensive units.
That said, there are definitely areas where the team can outperform last season — most notably in the pass rush, where they tied the Buffalo Bills and New Orleans Saints with just 41 total sacks. That’s a steep drop from their 57 sacks in 2023, and if the Chiefs want to dominate in 2025, getting back to that level of pressure will be critical.
Just like we did with the offense, we’ll examine five key statistical categories and assign an over-under number for each. Then we’ll predict whether the Chiefs will likely hit or miss it.
Note: While we heavily considered past statistics, this project is, by definition, rooted in projections and educated guesses.
There’s no sugarcoating it: the Chiefs’ defense took a step back in this category. After registering 57 sacks in 2023, they managed just 41 in 2024, a noticeable drop-off in production when it came to getting after opposing quarterbacks 39 times in 2024. It was the team's lowest sack total since 2021, when they only registered 31 sacks.
There were a lot of factors that contributed to the Chiefs’ sack total last season. One major issue was the injury to Charles Omenihu, which kept him out for most of the year. Another was the lack of an interior pass rusher to line up next to Chris Jones, allowing teams to double-team him with minimal consequence.
The team addressed this issue in the draft, selecting both Omarr Norman-Lott and Ashton Gillotte.
In this model, I’m adding +15 sacks to account for the addition of the rookies and Omenihu’s return to health. However, I’m also subtracting -6 sacks due to the loss of Turk Wharton.
I’m also factoring in that George Karlaftis and Mike Danna are both entering contract years, which adds motivation to produce.
Projected sacks: 49
My take: Over
The Chiefs topped 50 sacks in both 2022 and 2023. With this infusion of young talent and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s love of creative blitzes, I see Kansas City returning to the half-century mark again.
If we look at recent Chiefs history, we’ll see that they usually average somewhere between 12 and 13 interceptions per season.
Based on the quarterbacks they’re facing — and where and when those games happen —you’ll land on a similar number if you start crunching the digits. The improvements at cornerback are offset by the loss of Justin Reid and the lingering questions at safety.
So, all things considered, I think we’re in for a year that mirrors what the Chiefs did in 2024.
**Projected interceptions:...
