Buffalo Rumblings
Josh Allen — one of the best quarterbacks on the planet — finished the 2025 season averaging a career-low 7.1 yards per target. A career-high 65% of his attempts traveled fewer than 10 yards downfield. No wide receiver on the roster cracked 750 yards. Khalil Shakir led the team with 719 — a number that, in any other offense with Allen at quarterback, would belong to a second or third option. The Bills’ wide receiver corps as a unit ranked among the bottom quarter of the league in receiving yards.
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: that wasn’t Joe Brady’s offense. At least not fully. That was Sean McDermott’s offense, by Brady. Now the ball-control game plans are gone. Brady is the head coach, Pete Carmichael — who spent the majority of his coaching career running (or assisting) one of the most consistently productive passing attacks in NFL history alongside Drew Brees in New Orleans — is the offensive coordinator, and Brandon Beane spent a second-round pick to bring DJ Moore back into the system that produced the best stretch of his career. If you want the full breakdown of what Brady’s offense is going to look like in 2026, I covered that in detail in my previous piece. Today, we’re talking numbers.
I expect the Bills to generate approximately 515 targets distributed among their pass catchers, with Allen finishing around 562 total passing attempts when you factor in throwaways, batted balls, and spikes. Here’s how I see those targets distributed.
Chris Trapasso went through his exercise in May. Feel free to compare and contrast our projections… and give your own in the comments section.
2025 with Chicago: 50 receptions, 682 yards, 6 TDs
Moore’s 2025 season was disappointing for his standards. Fifty catches and 682 yards from a receiver making $23.5 million per year isn’t ideal, to say the least, and I won’t pretend otherwise. But here’s what I keep coming back to: in 2020, under Joe Brady in Carolina, Moore was nearly unstoppable. He put up 1,193 yards and a career-high 18.1 yards per reception in just 15 games, playing through a carousel of quarterbacks. Now he arrives in Buffalo with a coaching staff that knows exactly how to deploy him and a franchise quarterback who can actually deliver the ball where Moore needs it.
Does that mean a full return to 2020 form? No. Father Time is undefeated, and Moore will be 29 in September. But I believe in the reunion, I believe in the quarterback, and I believe in a very positive change of scenario for him — from a place where he was being phased out to another one where he’s wanted, badly. He’s the WR1 on this roster, the clear leader of what I see as a genuine Big Three alongside Shakir and Kincaid. I expect him to finish the year with the most yards, catches, and touchdowns among that group.
**2026 Projection: 115 targets, 76...
