Gang Green Nation
The second year player needs to show improvement now.
“He’s just a rookie.”
“Have patience.”
“He needs time to develop.”
“You know, players can actually improve.”
When a player has an underwhelming rookie season, these are popular refrains along with other similar statements.
These statements frequently do have merit. There are players who don’t do much in year one but ultimately develop into quality NFL contributors.
Still, most players who don’t produce much in year one never amount to anything on the professional level.
I think these discussions frequently neglect two essential questions.
There’s much more nuance in answering the first question than people realize. A player selected after round two probably isn’t going to contribute a ton, but there is a difference between occasional flashes where he looks the part and a season lacking any substantive contribution.
The second is a bit easier to understand. Sure, players can improve. Still, the history of the league is littered with players who never appreciably got better upon entering the NFL.
Even among those who do, it’s difficult to expect an infinite amount of improvement. A rookie who is a plus starter has a reasonable chance of developing into a star. An average starter could become a plus starter. A decent rookie role player could become a starter. Somebody who occasionally shows a pulse could reasonably one day turn into a role player.
But what’s the realistic expectation for a rookie who showed zero?
Of course you have the occasional guy who shows massive improvement. Still, I don’t think it’s smart for a team to base its bets on “Anything is theoretically possible.”
This brings me to Malachi Corley. The Jets hyped up the third round pick between selecting him in the 2024 NFL Draft and the start of the season. Then once the season came, the Jets got virtually nothing. Corley caught only 3 passes all season. His only memorable moment came in the Halloween Night win over the Houston Texans. The Jets drew up an end around for Corley in the second quarter. The play was perfectly executed and blocked, setting up Corley for what should have been an easy walk in touchdown. Instead Corley celebrated prematurely, dropping the ball at the 1 yard line. It rolled out of the end zone for a touchback.
Of course even great players sometimes make really dumb blooper reel plays, but that particular moment was symbolic of a lost rookie season.
Was Corley’s lack of impact really a red flag, though? We usually don’t see teams count much on third round receivers in year one.
I decided to take a look at how rookies selected in the same range as Corley in the Draft typically produce. Including Corley, there were 37 wide receivers selected between picks 55 and 75 (ten picks before to ten picks after Corley’s spot at...
