Pats Pulpit
The New England Patriots are headed home as they welcome the Cleveland Browns to Gillette Stadium after a three game road trip. New England will also look for their fifth straight win to further their lead atop the AFC East.
So before kickoff, let’s get right into this week’s #PostPulpit Mailbag.
Do you think the early game defensive struggles are due to scheme or the players or both? The D has been more or less lights out in the second half and even about mid 2nd quarter after getting spanked early in every game. That leads me to think it’s a play calling issue but the tale of two a defenses is annoying to see. Eventually it’s gonna put the Pats in a hole that they can’t climb out of, likely at the worst time, especially if they somehow defy all preseason expectations and find themselves in the playoffs. – ThunderMonkee
The Patriots have allowed points on opponent’s first drives in five of seven games to start this season. Through opponent’s first three drives, New England ranks 30th in EPA/play and dead last in success rate.
As for what’s going wrong, Mike Vrabel and players have noted how opponents’ scripts have hurt them. Schematically, New England seems to keep things pretty basic through the early drives — outside of trying to make a play out of the gate with a corner blitz against New Orleans that backfired as they allowed a 50-plus yard explosive — which likely plays a role.
The positive news is that after they allow the game to declare, the switch is flipped. Following an opponent’s first three drives, New England ranks third in EPA per play (-0.17) and tenth in play success rate (41.6%). While the slow starts have not hurt them yet with the offense playing well and the defense ultimately buckling down, it is a trend worth pointing out and remembering against better offenses coming up on the schedule that could put the Patriots in an early hole.
The other issue on defense that has allowed teams to move the ball is their man coverage success. New England is playing man coverage much differently than they have in the past with no robber or hole defender to help cornerbacks in the middle of the field. Instead, they are playing plenty on man-free (single-high safety) and bringing extra rushers from the second level.
Despite having a group of talented man coverage corners, the structure of the system is forcing them to truly play on islands (a hard ask for anyone). While New England has dropped their man coverage rates the last two weeks, teams are taking advantage of the middle of the field when they do play man as the Patriots rank last in EPA per drop-back in man coverage (+0.39).
With Vrabel spending last year with the Browns as a consultant and having the inside scoop about how the team operates, what, if any, advantages would that provide going into this Sunday?
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