Pro Football Rumors
Beginning life after Bill Belichick in 2024, the Patriots stumbled through their second straight 4-13 season under rookie head coach Jerod Mayo. Although Mayo put together a successful career as a Patriots linebacker from 2008-15, owner Robert Kraft did not give him a second year on the sidelines. Kraft canned Mayo in January 2025 and replaced him with Mike Vrabel, another of the team’s ex-linebackers.
Unlike Mayo, Vrabel had already proven himself as a head coach when he took the Patriots’ job. While in charge of the Titans from 2018-23, Vrabel posted a respectable 54-45 regular-season record and went to the playoffs three times. Between the upgrade from Mayo to Vrabel and optimism surrounding second-year quarterback Drake Maye, expectations were the Patriots would show legitimate progress last season.
Not only did the Patriots improve in Year 1 under Vrabel, but they engineered one of the greatest single-season turnarounds in NFL history. After storming to a 14-3 mark in the regular season and snapping the Bills’ five-year streak of AFC East titles, the Patriots knocked off the Chargers, Texans and Broncos in the playoffs to earn a berth in Super Bowl LX. That ended up as a night to forget for New England, which fell 29-13 to Seattle, but its season was a resounding success overall. Vrabel won Coach of the Year, while Maye finished second to Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford in the MVP race.
The Patriots were clearly among the league’s elite last season, yet there is skepticism they will stay in the same company this year. Detractors will point to their 2025 slate of opponents as an obvious argument for negative regression. The Patriots, who won just two regular-season games against playoff teams (the Panthers and Bills), faced the easiest schedule since the 1999 Rams. They played teams with a combined .391 winning percentage. It appears it will be far more difficult in 2026 for the Pats, who will tackle the sixth-hardest schedule based on their opponents’ winning percentage from last year (.531).
Going up against what should be a tougher group of opponents, will Maye continue his MVP-level play? He was unquestionably in that class last year. The 2024 third overall pick from North Carolina ranked first in the league in completion percentage (72%), passer rating (113.5), QBR (77.1) and yards per attempt (8.9). Maye also scored 35 touchdowns (31 passing, four rushing) against just eight interceptions and ran for the fourth-most yards among QBs (450).
Maye did not turn in anything close to an MVP-caliber playoff performance, though inclement weather hurt his cause in wins against the Texans and Broncos. Over four games, Maye connected on 58.3% of passes, tossed six TDs and four INTs, and registered an 82.2 rating with a 40.0 QBR. The Patriots got through the AFC bracket largely because of a defense that allowed a measly 19 points in three games. They gave up just seven in their AFC title game win in snowy Denver, which had to turn to backup...
