Pro Football Rumors
The Patriots’ win Monday night gave the AFC two two-loss teams (and zero three-loss squads) exiting Week 13, forming a mid-2010s-like duel for the No. 1 seed with the Broncos. In the NFC’s race for the bye slot, the picture is much cloudier.
As it stands, the NFC has a host of teams in contention for that No. 1 spot. The Bears currently hold it, but a fierce challenge appears ahead for Ben Johnson‘s resurgent team. Chicago sits at 9-3, but so do the Rams and Seahawks. Because of their tie in Dallas, the Packers are 8-3-1. The Eagles’ Week 13 loss to the Bears hurts their cause, but the defending Super Bowl champions are 8-4. The 49ers are 9-4, creating an interesting race with five weeks left.
The Bears have not earned a top seed since 2006, though their second-seeded squad advanced to the 2010 NFC title game. The Bears have not managed a playoff win since. ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the current NFC leader a 12% chance of holding the top spot. That figure sits fifth in the conference.
While the Johnson hire has proven the catalyst for the Bears’ climb — after four straight playoff absences — the team’s decision to overhaul its offensive line has played a big role as well. The trades for Jonah Jackson and Joe Thuney, along with the Drew Dalman signing, has helped the Bears rank second in pass block win rate and fourth in run block win rate this season. This group powered D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai to 100-yard days in Philly on Black Friday. The team also saw Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon, whose offseason extension topped the slot cornerback market, activated from IR for the stretch run.
Chicago, however, closes with four games against over-.500 teams; the Bears draw the Packers twice and have games against the 49ers and Lions. In addition to the two Bears tilts, the Packers have a Denver trip to make along with a Week 17 Ravens matchup. ESPN’s FPI gives Green Bay a 17% chance to hold the No. 1 seed. The Packers earned back-to-back No. 1 seeds — in 2020 and ’21 — but have not come especially close to such real estate during Jordan Love‘s starter run.
Love has shown more growth in 2025, ranking third in QBR despite the team battling major issues in its pass-catching corps. Tucker Kraft is out for the season, and the team has not had Jayden Reed — its leading receiver in 2023 and ’24 — available since Week 2. Reed is in the IR-return window, and the Packers have seen Christian Watson — who returned midseason from an ACL tear — step forward along with Romeo Doubs. The Pack have not seen too much from first-round pick Matthew Golden, however, and the Kraft-to-Luke Musgrave gap appears wide despite the latter being drafted earlier in 2023.
The Packers did not exactly ride defense to those bye slots earlier this decade, with that unit being...
