The Falcoholic
The arrow is pointing up for the Falcons in a critical element of their offensive arsenal.
Along with ample humidity, there is excitement in the air around Flowery Branch as the Atlanta Falcons embark on a 2025 season, hoping to end their seven-year playoff drought. While the infusion of youth on defense prompts much of that enthusiasm, the Falcons’ ability to make the playoffs likely falls squarely on the offense being the driving force.
Unlike on defense, the Falcons made minimal additions on offense this offseason. Instead, the team is optimistic that the pieces already assembled last year will improve thanks to development and growth in the second year with quarterback Michael Penix and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson.
While Penix gets a lot of attention due to the nature of his position, Robinson also deserves ample scrutiny. While Robinson did a fine job in his first year as an NFL play-caller, there is considerable room for growth. The biggest area is the play-action game’s impact for the Falcons’ offense.
The Falcons were arguably the NFL’s worst play-action passing team. Last year, the team not only called the fewest play-action passes in the league, but was also the only team not to have a single touchdown pass off play action, ranking dead last in passer rating and completion rate off play action. In terms of expected points added (EPA) per play-action pass, the Falcons fared only slightly better, ranking 25th best according to Next Gen Stats.
When looking at these various play-action-based metrics, there’s a fairly strong correlation between team success and effective play-action passing, with 11 of the top 16 teams in EPA per play-action pass making the playoffs in 2024. This makes sense given that misdirection is an extremely valuable tool in any effective play-caller’s arsenal, acting as a force multiplier when attacking over the middle of the field
Besides Robinson, nearly all the play-calling disciples of the Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan coaching tree finished near the top of the league in EPA per play-action pass. No lineage of coaches collectively does a better job of marrying their run game to their passing game via play action than that group.
Yet, Robinson is the lone exception who struggled in this area. Of course, there are plenty of excuses and blame to go around, whether that centers on Kirk Cousins’ lack of mobility or Penix’s inexperience. But the bottom line remains that if the Falcons can significantly improve in this area, it’ll do wonders to improve their playoff chances in 2025.
Look no further than the Washington Commanders’ improvement a year ago. Washington ranked 31st in EPA per play-action pass under offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy in 2023, but then improved to 15th under Kliff Kingsbury in 2024, fueling their offensive turnaround and playoff push alongside the playmaking skills of rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels. The Falcons hope they can see similar results with Penix in his first full season as a starter.
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