Pride of Detroit
Well, well, well. Look what the cat dragged in. The Detroit Lions return to Ford Field for the home season finale against the 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers, making his 27th career start against Detroit, as the Lions look for their 16th straight win following a loss, a streak dating back to 2022.
Back in 2021—the last time the Lions played the Steelers—Detroit was desperate for answers and wins. Dan Campbell took over play-calling duties from Anthony Lynn against a Steelers team riding a four-game winning streak, and it resulted in a 16–16 tie, the first non-loss of the Campbell era. Now, Campbell is back behind the play-call sheet once again, with the Lions needing a win in the worst way as the Terrible Towels head to Motown.
Both the 8–6 Lions and 8–6 Steelers are fighting for their playoff lives, and they’ll be doing so while navigating what could be a revolving door on the offensive line for both teams due to injury. That matters a lot. A lot of what decides this game is going to start, and possibly end, up front.
Here are five key statistical matchups that could swing it.
Note: Unless otherwise indicated, all statistics are sourced from NFL Pro, TruMedia, FTN Fantasy, or Pro Football Reference.
Similar to the Rams preview, you can’t talk about the Steelers’ offense without talking about their 13-personnel usage. Under offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, Pittsburgh leans into 13-personnel on 15.0% of their offensive snaps (2nd), deploying tight ends Darnell Washington, Pat Freiermuth, Jonnu Smith, and occasionally H-back Connor Heyward to fully embrace the offense’s condensed, heavier-set identity.
Fortunately for the Lions, the Steelers’ run game doesn’t actually gain much from loading the field with extra tight ends. Their rushing efficiency dips from 3.9 yards per rush overall (28th) to 3.8 yards per rush out of 13-personnel, while their rushing success rate slides from 49.1% (7th) to 48.1%. Their explosive run rate also drops from 5.4% (t-28th) to 3.7%. The lone area of improvement comes in yards before contact per rush, which rises from 1.14 (27th) to 1.37.
While Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell are a solid enough duo, this isn’t a rushing attack that should scare Detroit—especially with Pittsburgh down both left tackle Broderick Jones (IR) and left guard Isaac Seumalo (out) and center Zach Frazier dealing with a triceps injury. The Rams gashed the Lions on the ground, particularly out of 13-personnel (25 carries, 138 yards, three touchdowns), but this should be a ground game that Kelvin Sheppard’s defense can control, limit damage against, and potentially force negative plays. Notably, the Steelers’ stuff rate jumps from 16.6% overall to 23.5% when operating out of 13-personnel. Bottle it up, get them behind the sticks, and keep the defense from getting stuck on the field for extended stretches.
Where 13-personnel does help Pittsburgh is in the passing game, giving Aaron Rodgers a tight-end-centric look that improves production across nearly every metric.
Note: Unless otherwise indicated, all statistics...
