Pats Pulpit
The New England Patriots may have a successful postseason history against the Houston Texans, but it will not matter come Sunday. These are not your dad’s (or your younger self’s) Patriots, and these are certainly not the same Texans that were blown out in each of their previous playoff trips to Gillette Stadium.
With what is arguably the best defense in football leading the way, Houston is a legitimate contender in the AFC and capable of giving Mike Vrabel’s team all it can handle. The Patriots, on the other hand, have shown their ability to play successful and complementary football all year, albeit mostly against competition not on the Texans’ level.
And yet, there is reason for optimism heading into Sunday — that is, if the Patriots can play a cleaner game than they did at times last week. With that said, here are our X-factors for the divisional playoffs, using numbers from NFL Next Gen Stats.
Let Drake Maye cook: The Texans defense is as good a unit as any in the NFL, but that does not mean it is without weakness. In fact, some of those correlate precisely with what Patriots quarterback Drake Maye is doing well: stressing defenses deep and making plays with his legs.
Houston enters Sunday ranked 18th in the NFL in expected points added on throws of at least 20 air yards, compared to a first-place ranking on shorter passes than that. The team also ranks 14th in explosive pass play rate, which is still above average but not as high a ranking as others. Maye, on the other hand, has been the best deep-ball thrower in football this year and will get his chances to stress the unit especially when it goes to the single-high man looks it likes to incorporate on late downs.
Both Kayshon Boutte and Kyle Williams could be actively involved on Sunday. Yes, cornerbacks Derek Stingley and Kamari Lassiter are a potent duo on the outside, but that should not prevent the Patriots from testing them or the soft spots in the Texans’ coverage.
As far as scrambling is concerned, Houston is ranked second-to-last in the league in both EPA (+1.02) and yards per carry (9.6) in such situations. Maye, meanwhile, has been willing and able to make plays with his feet. Just last week against a solid Chargers defense, he scrambled five times for 60 yards and 0.7 expected points added per such play.
Turn the Texans’ aggressiveness against them: The Texans’ vulnerability against quarterback scrambles is a byproduct of their defensive play style. They are aggressive at everything they do, which can lead to some uneven gap integrity and openings to exploit. And while they have at times countered by employing spies against mobile QBs like Drake Maye, Houston treating the game as a true 11-on-11 matchup takes an extra defender away form patrolling underneath.
The aggressiveness does not only show up in the scramble numbers, but on select play designs as well. One...
