Pats Pulpit
The New England Patriots were one of the most successful teams in the NFL during the regular season, winning 14 of their 17 games and earning both a division title and the No. 2 playoff seed in their conference. Looking ahead, however, those accomplishments matter little: it’s one-game season time.
The first of those games will see the team of head coach Mike Vrabel go up against a formidable opponent, an 11-6 Los Angeles Chargers team combining a formidable offense with one of the best defenses in the NFL. Naturally, the Patriots need to bring their A-game to the prime time matchup on Sunday night.
Beating the Chargers takes more than just good individual performance, however. The Patriots also need to be able to succeed in some critical areas. With that said, here are our X-factors for the wild card playoffs, using numbers from NFL Next Gen Stats.
Be aggressive against zone defense: While the Chargers do like to mix things up on critical downs, they are at their core a zone defense. During the regular season, they ranked fifth in the NFL playing variations of the coverage on 80.7% of plays. The defense coordinated by Jesse Minter performed well using it, too, allowing a completion percentage of just 64.5% while also giving up only seven touchdowns versus 16 interceptions.
The Patriots, on the other hand, have not been limited by zone coverage so far this season. Drake Maye topped the league with a 74.9% completion rate and 9.2 yards per attempt against zone looks during the regular season, throwing 13 TDs to only four INTs. He has been particularly impressive throwing deep, another area the Chargers have fared well so far this season. And while the defensive numbers suggests a formidable opponent in all those areas, Maye is the type of player to find holes and exploit the zone looks he is likely to face at a high rate Sunday.
Get the Chargers out of their comfort zone: L.A. was one of the top teams in football during the regular season operating out of dime looks, a package Minter called on 23.3% of opponent dropbacks — third-highest in the NFL. The team is able to use those seemingly lighter packages thanks to a player like Derwin James, who blurs the line between the traditional safety, nickelback and off-ball linebacker; having him on the field doesn’t compromise the defense’s integrity against the run while still in dime.
The Patriots, however, have the tools to counter this and get the Chargers out of their comfort zone. They recently started increasing the use of packages using six offensive linemen, with backup tackle Thayer Munford Jr. serving as an extra blocker on the line. For offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, this allows the team to move some responsibilities around while remaining physical up front. Against Los Angeles’ dime-heavy crew, those bigger sets and the run game advantages it creates could give New England some advantageous matchups unless Minter and company opt...
