Pats Pulpit
Fresh off a demoralizing 35-31 loss to the Buffalo Bills, the New England Patriots will get a chance to bounce back in front of a national audience. Their Week 16 matchup with the Baltimore Ravens was flexed to Sunday night, a slot fitting for the game’s high-stakes nature.
The Patriots need a win to keep their one-game advantage over the surging Bills in the AFC East, while anything but a victory would deal a major blow to the 7-7 Ravens’ postseason hopes. The circumstances alone should make this a competitive affair, and a look at our head-to-head comparison also confirms that notion.
Patriots pass offense vs. Ravens pass defense: Even though New England’s aerial attack faltered in the second half against Baltimore, the unit has the potential to challenge the 17th-ranked pass defense in terms of EPA per dropback (0.064). Drake Maye still remains an MVP-caliber quarterback. And given that Baltimore’s pass rush has been lackluster so far this year, he should be allowed sufficient time in the pocket to go through the process without rushing through his reads. The bigger question might be the Patriots’ pass catchers, and their ability to beat man coverage on a consistent basis. Should the otherwise zone-heavy Ravens decide to switch things up, the group will need to show improvement from last week. | Edge: Patriots
Patriots pass defense vs. Ravens pass offense: New England had its issues defending Bills tight ends Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid last Sunday, and the Ravens present no less of a challenge: Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely are also among the better tight end duos in football. Their matchup against the Patriots’ linebackers and safeties could be key in passing situations considering that the Patriots’ cornerbacks should be competitive versus Baltimore’s wide receivers. Of course, that is based on the projection of Carlton Davis and Marcus Jones being available after they sat out practice on Wednesday due to injury. If one or both are unavailable, Baltimore might just have the edge, especially if New England’s pass rush continues to run hot and cold as well. | Edge: Patriots
Patriots rushing offense vs. Ravens run defense: The Patriots shredded the Bills on the ground, gaining 246 yards on 25 carries and scoring two long touchdowns. The Ravens defense, however, presents a different challenge: Baltimore is ranked 12th in EPA per run (-0.095) compared to Buffalo’s 31st-place ranking entering last week. That might not seem like a major difference, but could make life more challenging for a New England offense that has yet to show that it can duplicate successful performance in the run game on a week-to-week basis. A lot will hinge on the Ravens’ available personnel, particularly at linebacker, but we are still giving the home team a slight advantage for now. | Edge: Ravens
Patriots run defense vs. Ravens rushing offense: The previous three battles are all fairly even in our estimation, but this one has a clear winner: New England’s...
