Pats Pulpit
They may have flirted with disaster last Sunday in Baltimore, but the New England Patriots managed to beat the Ravens to secure a trip to the playoffs and hold onto their one-game lead in the AFC East. Winning the division has been a stated goal by head coach Mike Vrabel since his arrival, and the Patriots could end up clinching it this Sunday.
For that to happen, however, two things need to take place. One is Buffalo losing at home to the Philadelphia Eagles; the other is the Patriots taking care of business on the road against the New York Jets. On paper, they should be able to do so — the Jets are 3-12 as well as 13.5-point underdogs — but as a look at our head-to-head comparison shows they cannot allow any slip-ups either.
Patriots pass offense vs. Jets pass defense: The Jets are ranked 30th in the NFL in expected points added per dropback (-0.119), and it is not hard to see why. Up front, they have struggled to put the heat on opposing quarterbacks, ranking 29th in sacks (25) and 30th in pressure rate (16.1%). In the backend, meanwhile, they traded away star cornerback Sauce Gardner and have seen several starters go down with injuries, resulting in a grand total of zero passes getting intercepted this season. Against an MVP-caliber QB like Drake Maye, this looks like a combination of circumstances too challenging to overcome. Even with the Patriots facing some injury woes on offense, the matchup heavily favors the visitors. | Edge: Patriots
Patriots pass defense vs. Jets pass offense: Brady Cook is in no enviable situation. Not only is he an undrafted rookie who has been thrown in at the deep end, he also has to operate the Jets’ offense without its best receiving weapon (Garrett Wilson) and potentially its top tight end (Mason Taylor). And even though he has been pressured on only 26.1% of his snaps, he has taken 17 sacks in 89 dropbacks this season for a staggering pressure-to-sack rate of 53.1%. He also has turned the ball over seven times in three in-game appearances. If there ever is a “get right” game for New England’s pass rush, and one to add to the takeaway total, this is it. | Edge: Patriots
Patriots rushing offense vs. Jets run defense: TreVeyon Henderson returning to practice is a good sign, even with left guard Jared Wilson in concussion protocol. The Patriots’ rushing success this week won’t entirely depend on them, but having them available would make the job an easier one. And while the Jets run defense has been below average this season, ranking 18th in yards per run (4.4), 24th in EPA per run (-0.036), and 25th in touchdowns given up (18), it was competitive in its first game versus New England with no major personnel changes up front since. Since we are projecting Henderson to be cleared in time, we are giving a slight edge...
