Pats Pulpit
The New England Patriots’ season is far from over, but they will close the book on its first chapter on Sunday. Hosting the Miami Dolphins at Gillette Stadium, the team of head coach Mike Vrabel will play its final regular season game of the year — one that could end up having major playoff implications.
Before any of that comes into play, however, the Patriots need to take care of business and win a second game against their division rivals this season. They should be able to do so, not just because they are entering the game as 11.5-point favorites: as a look at our head-to-head comparison between the two teams shows, New England is simply the better of the two squads at the moment.
Patriots pass offense vs. Dolphins pass defense: Coming off a five-touchdown performance against the New York Jets, MVP favorite Drake Maye will be going up against another suspect pass defense on Sunday. The Dolphins, after all, are ranked in the bottom third in several statistical categories related both to coverage and pass rush. And even though New England will not be at full strength — WR Mack Hollins (IR) and LG Jared Wilson are both out — they should still be able to move the ball well against Miami, particularly with two starters returning as well: left tackle Will Campbell is back and so is wideout Kayshon Boutte. All in all, this is a favorable matchup for Maye and company. | Edge: Patriots
Patriots pass defense vs. Dolphins pass offense: Similar to their pass defense, the Dolphins pass offense has also been uneven this year — to a point that Tua Tagovailoa was benched after the team was officially eliminated from playoff contention in Week 15. Since then, seventh-round draft pick Quinn Ewers has served as the team’s QB1. Ewers has been solid, ranking 16th among qualifying quarterbacks in EPA per play over the last two weeks (0.059). That being said, he is still a rookie going against a defense capable of throwing different coverage looks and pressure packages at him. Until he shows he can produce consistently in such an environment, we are giving the advantage to New England’s defense. | Edge: Patriots
Patriots rushing offense vs. Dolphins run defense: The sample size is relatively small, but still: the Patriots are ranked third in the NFL in EPA per run play since their Week 14 bye (0.171). The eye test confirms this; New England’s ground game has performed well recently and with both Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson available. On Sunday, the group will go up against a Dolphins defense that has been up and down versus the run this year, and over the same three-week period is ranked 23rd in EPA (0.042). With Miami likely worried about the pass game, Stevenson and Henderson might be finding some openings. | Edge: Patriots
Patriots run defense vs. Dolphins rushing offense: We originally considered giving the edge to Miami in...
