Patriots vs. Chargers: Who has the edge in the NFL playoffs?

Patriots vs. Chargers: Who has the edge in the NFL playoffs?
Pats Pulpit Pats Pulpit

The New England Patriots played a comparatively easy schedule in the regular season, there is no denying that. That being said, they are still a battle-tested team that cut its teeth against a handful of high-quality opponents or at least units. The playoffs, however, are a different animal: every team is good, and the Los Angeles Chargers are no exception.

While not statistically outstanding on offense, they are still capable of moving the ball and scoring points. Their defense, meanwhile, has been one of the best in the NFL against both the pass and the run. They finished with an inferior record to the Patriots, but still looked like one of the better teams in the AFC at times.

How do the Chargers stack up against the Patriots, though? Let’s take a look at our head-to-head comparison.

Passing game

Patriots pass offense vs. Chargers pass defense: Led by Pro Bowlers Derwin James and Tuli Tuipulotu, the Chargers pass defense has been a top unit in the NFL this season. Fusing a relentless pass rush not relying on. the blitz with a zone-heavy coverage in the backend, the unit is ranked third in interceptions (19), seventh in EPA per dropback (-0.051) and ninth in net yards per attempt (5.6). That said, it will be going up against an MVP-caliber quarterback and a passing offense that has been no less impressive. The matchup will be of the highest quality, and arguably the toughest so far for both units. We are giving New England a minor edge, though, because Drake Maye has been one of the best QBs in football against zone this year, completing 74.9% of his passes and averaging 9.2 yards per pass, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. | Edge: Patriots

Patriots pass defense vs. Chargers pass offense: Justin Herbert is one of the top quarterbacks in football, and a player capable of making life hard for any pass defense in the NFL. So, why are we seeing this as an advantageous matchup for New England? Mainly because of Los Angeles’ offensive line. The unit has struggled mightily to find stability and quality play this season, which has impacted Herbert’s effectiveness and limited the offense as a whole. Granted, New England’s pass rush has been anything but inspiring, pressuring opposing passers on just 20.3% of dropbacks, but the team has an ace in the hole: the disruptive interior line duo of Christian Barmore and Milton Williams could become a major problem for Los Angeles. If they play to their capabilities against a suspect O-line, Herbert and company might be in for a long day. | Edge: Patriots

Running game

Patriots rushing offense vs. Chargers run defense: Since turning the calendar to December, no rushing attack in the NFL has been as productive as the Patriots’: led by Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson, the group is producing 0.179 expected points per run play and averaging over 180 yards per game. However, this matchup is a case of the unstoppable...