Pats Pulpit
The stage is set for a memorable AFC East showdown between the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills this Sunday. In one corner, you have the upstart Patriots trying to regain the division crown for the first time in six years. On the other, you have the five-time defending champion trying to fight their way back into title contention.
As far as the stakes are concerned, this is a marquee matchup in the NFL this weekend. Who will emerge victoriously, though? The oddsmakers believe it will be Buffalo, given the team’s status as 1.5-point road favorites for Week 15.
Looking at our head-to-head comparison between the two teams, however, we are not quite sure about that projection.
Patriots pass offense vs. Bills pass defense: Drake Maye’s MVP case might rest on his ability to slay the dragon that has sat atop AFC East castle for the last half-decade. In our estimation, he has what it takes to do just that. The second-year quarterback is leading one of the most efficient passing attacks in the NFL, and should be able to find success against a unit that has been solid — Buffalo is ranked 10th in the NFL with an EPA per dropback of -0.013 — but not without its flaws. If the Patriots can avoid the turnovers that doomed Cincinnati last week and provide workable pockets against the likes of Joey Bosa, Greg Rousseau and company, Maye should be able to find some favorable 1-on-1s at the second and third levels of the defense. | Edge: Patriots
Patriots pass defense vs. Bills pass offense: This is as good a matchup as you will get, and a clear strength vs. strength battle between one of the top pass defenses in football and one of the best aerial attacks led by an MVP-level quarterback. Obviously, Josh Allen is capable of putting pressure on any defense in football — the Patriots’ being no exception, as they have found out multiple times over the years. And yet, heading into this game, we are giving New England a slight edge for two reasons: 1.) They will be playing in front of what projects to be a raucous Gillette Stadium crowd; 2.) Their coverage personnel has an advantage over Buffalo’s skill position group. Allen is the X-factor, of course, but the Patriots are well-equipped to make life difficult for him. | Edge: Patriots
Patriots rushing offense vs. Bills run defense: On the year, Buffalo’s defense is ranked 31st in the NFL in EPA per run and 29th in yards per carry. Those number are bad, but also slightly misleading: recently, the Bills have managed to show some improvement that might be enough to seriously challenge the Patriots on the ground. Over the last month, for example, their defense has out-performed New England’s offense when it comes to the ground game (0.004 EPA/run vs. -0.197 EPA/run). It goes without saying that no two games are alike, and that there are certain...
