Pats Pulpit
Winners of 10 straight games and owners of an 11-2 record overall, the New England Patriots are in the driver’s seat for their first AFC East championship since 2019. In fact, they can secure the title as early as this Sunday. Standing in their way, however, is a formidable opponent: the five-time reigning division champion Buffalo Bills.
The two teams already met earlier this season, with the Patriots celebrating a 23-20 upset win on the road. A lot has changed in the two months since, however, so let’s take a closer look at New England’s upcoming opponent.
Even though they are in second place in the division and ranked sixth overall in the AFC entering Week 15, the Bills are one of the statistically best teams in the NFL: they are a top-5 offense in most categories, as well as an above-average defense.
Record: 9-4 (2nd AFC East/6th AFC)
Scoring differential: +83 (5th)
Turnover differential: -1 (t-16th)
Offense: 28.9 points/game (5th), 383.7 yards/game (2nd), 18 giveaways (t-23rd), 0.141 EPA/play (3rd), 0.251 EPA/dropback (3rd), -0.006 EPA/run (7th)
Defense: 22.5 points/game (14th), 307.1 yards/game (10th), 17 takeaways (t-10th), 0.012 EPA/play (16th), -0.013 EPA/dropback (10th), 0.045 EPA/run (31st)
Buffalo is potent team on both sides of the ball, with its well-rounded offense a particular problem. The group has been productive moving the ball both through the air and on the ground, with turnovers as the biggest hindrance when it comes to sustained success: the Bills are 1-4 when losing the turnover battle, including their game against the Patriots earlier this year.
Defensively, the unit has played some solid football in all but one areas: Buffalo’s run defense has been bad, ranking 31st in EPA per run as well as 32nd in touchdowns and 29th in yards per carry.
The Bills were 4-0 the last time they met the Patriots, but have since experienced some hardship: they are only 5-4 since, even though they have managed to win two in a row entering Week 15 and are still alive in the race for the AFC East title.
Week 1: 41-40 win vs. Baltimore Ravens (1-0)
Week 2: 30-10 win at New York Jets (2-0)
Week 3: 31-21 win vs. Miami Dolphins (3-0)
Week 4: 31-19 win vs. New Orleans Saints (4-0)
Week 5: 23-20 loss vs. New England Patriots (4-1)
Week 6: 24-14 loss at Atlanta Falcons (4-2)
Week 7: Bye
Week 8: 40-9 win at Carolina Panthers (5-2)
Week 9: 28-21 win vs. Kansas City Chiefs (6-2)
Week 10: 30-13 loss at Miami Dolphins (6-3)
Week 11: 44-32 win vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-3)
Week 12: 23-19 loss at Houston Texans (7-4)
Week 13: 26-7 win at Pittsburgh Steelers (8-4)
Week 14: 39-34 win vs. Cincinnati Bengals (9-4)
What stands out when looking at Buffalo’s season so far is a split between home and road success. While the team is 6-1 in Orchard Park — the lone loss coming against the Patriots in Week 5...
