Pats Pulpit
The New England Patriots’ first game of the post-Bill Belichick era took place last September at Cincinnati’s Paycor Stadium. The 16-10 upset, which resulted in head coach Jerod Mayo getting doused in Gatorade, was not a sign of things to come for the team: 14 months later, with the Patriots set to return to the Queen City, it is now led by a new head coach, Mike Vrabel.
The Patriots under Vrabel made a remarkable turnaround, and just last week secured their first winning season since 2021 and eighth straight victory. Cincinnati, meanwhile, is in a position similar to that 2024 New England team: at 3-7, their playoff hopes are effectively over, and change might be on the horizon.
With that all being said, let’s meet the Patriots’ upcoming opponent.
As noted above, the Bengals are entering Week 12 having won just three of their first ten games this season. Unsurprisingly, their key stats look the part.
Record: 3-7 (3rd AFC North)
Scoring differential: -106 (31st)
Turnover differential: -7 (t-28th)
Offense: 22.8 points/game (18th), 307.1 yards/game (23rd), 16 giveaways (29th), -0.009 EPA/play (22nd), -0.031 EPA/dropback (26th), 0.043 EPA/run (2nd)
Defense: 33.4 points/game (32nd), 418.2 yards/game (32nd), 9 takeaways (t-24th), 0.205 EPA/play (32nd), 0.274 EPA/dropback (32nd), 0.108 EPA/run (31st)
There is a lot to unpack here, starting with the fact that Cincinnati’s defense is the statistically worst in football. No other unit has given up more than 30 points or over 400 yards per game, but the Bengals have topped both those marks. The unit also ranks dead-last in expected points added per play, and in various other categories not mentioned here, including first downs, points per drive and yards per drive given up.
Unfortunately for Cincinnati, it’s offense has only been marginally better. It’s 18th place ranking in points per game is admirable, while its EPA per run number is nothing short of impressive. That said, that 0.043 number requires some context: the Bengals are ranked dead-last in the NFL with only 191 rushing attempts and 30th with 814 yards on the ground.
Before looking at the Bengals’ 2025 season, we will ask you a question: can you pinpoint the moment starting quarterback Joe Burrow was placed on injured reserve because of a turf toe injury?
Week 1: 17-16 win at Cleveland Browns (1-0)
Week 2: 31-27 win vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-0)
Week 3: 48-10 loss at Minnesota Vikings (2-1)
Week 4: 28-3 loss at Denver Broncos (2-2)
Week 5: 37-24 loss vs. Detroit Lions (2-3)
Week 6: 27-18 loss at Green Bay Packers (2-4)
Week 7: 33-31 win vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-4)
Week 8: 39-38 loss vs. New York Jets (3-5)
Week 9: 47-42 loss vs. Chicago Bears (3-6)
Week 10: Bye
Week 11: 34-12 loss at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-7)
If you said “ahead of Week 3” as the answer to our question above, you are correct. Burrow was banged up in Week 2 against Jacksonville, and has been out ever...
