New England Patriots - NESN.com
The New England Patriots may have to put away the underdog card after Sunday night’s upset win over the Buffalo Bills.
New England made a massive statement by handing Buffalo its first loss of the 2025 season and first home defeat since the 2023 postseason. Mike Vrabel transforming a 4-13 team into a playoff squad looks much more feasible following the Week 5 triumph.
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) gives the Patriots a 67.1 percent chance of making the playoffs. Their 9.8 projected wins trail only four AFC teams, but six have a higher playoff probability.
New England jumped five spots to No. 17 in FPI, and the easiest remaining strength of schedule could help secure a playoff berth. The Patriots’ next three opponents (New Orleans Saints, Tennessee Titans, Cleveland Browns) are each 1-4 and rank inside the FPI’s bottom 10.
The betting market reflects this influx of optimism surrounding the Patriots, who are now listed at -188 odds to make the postseason on FanDuel Sportsbook. The Baltimore Ravens may have created an AFC wild-card opening by falling to 1-4 in an ugly Week 5 loss without Lamar Jackson and numerous other key injured players.
That’s important, as the Bills remain favored to defend their AFC East crown despite Sunday’s stunner. ESPN gives Buffalo a 70.6 percent chance to win the division, higher than any other team besides the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (80.1% to win the NFC South).
The Bills maintain an NFL-high 91.9 percent chance of making the playoffs and 20 percent probability of reaching the Super Bowl. New England has a 28.7 percent chance of winning the division and a 5.2 percent chance of representing the AFC in Super Bowl LX.
The Patriots can bolster their playoff outlook by taking care of business against the Saints in Week 6.
