Patriots Become Overwhelming AFC East Favorites After Bills Loss

The New England Patriots gained ground in the AFC East standings before taking the field this Sunday.

New England watched the Buffalo Bills fall 23-19 to the Houston Texans on Thursday night. That gives the Patriots a two-game division lead entering their Week 12 contest against the Cincinnati Bengals.

Buffalo’s primetime slipup firmly puts New England in the driver’s seat to reclaim the division crown. The Athletic Playoff Simulator gives the Patriots a whopping 91 percent chance to win the AFC East after Thursday night.

Betting markets also acknowledge that it’s now New England’s division to lose. The Patriots are -450 favorites to win the AFC East over the Bills (+350) on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Mike Vrabel and Co. can wrap it up with ample time to spare. The Patriots would clinch the division with a Week 15 win over the Bills if they first defeat the 3-7 Cincinnati Bengals and 2-9 New York Giants.

That would allow New England to pursue a loftier goal. The Athletic projects a 44 percent chance of the Patriots capturing the AFC’s first-round bye, the conference’s highest probability above the Denver Broncos (26%) and Indianapolis Colts (23%).

Although the Bills may fall short of their sixth straight AFC title, The Athletic’s Playoff Simulator still gives them an 82 percent chance of making the playoffs. They’re 7-4 entering a Week 13 road game against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Patriots can bolster their division lead to 2.5 by defeating the Bengals this Sunday afternoon at Paycor Stadium.