Arrowhead Pride
Entering Week 6, oddsmakers had an established hierarchy of candidates for the Associated Press Most Valuable Player award.
According to FanDuel Sportsbook, the Buffalo Bills’ quarterback Josh Allen was the favorite with odds as low as +140. Behind him, the sportsbooks have typically listed Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ quarterback Baker Mayfield — who helped his case with an impressive 30-19 victory over the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday afternoon.
Kansas City Chiefs’ quarterback Patrick Mahomes quietly held the third-lowest odds leading into the team’s 30-17 win over the Detroit Lions on “Sunday Night Football*.*“ His 289 total yards (and four touchdowns) helped lift the Chiefs to a 3-3 record. Then the Bills fell to the Atlanta Falcons 24-14 on “Monday Night Football” — a game that included two Allen interceptions.
Before the clock could reach midnight, the FanDuel odds had dramatically shifted to reveal a new betting favorite: Mahomes.
Despite the absence of wide receiver Rashee Rice — who is expected to return in Week 7 as the Chiefs’ primary receiver — Mahomes has willed the offense to be one of the NFL’s most consistent. Only the Indianapolis Colts have a higher rate of offensive drives ending in a score — and only the Buccaneers have a lower percentage of possessions ending in turnovers.
In fact, Mahomes’ 2025 interception rate is less than 1%, which is a career low. He is one of nine full-time starting quarterbacks two or fewer picks this season — and one of those was an accurate, goal-line throw that tight end Travis Kelce muffed into the hands of the Philadelphia Eagles.
But Mahomes’ passing statistics are generally on par with the rest of the NFL’s elite quarterbacks. It’s probably been his success as a rusher that has moved him to the top of the oddsmakers’ charts. Allen (and Eagles’ quarterback Jalen Hurts) have more rushing attempts, but Mahomes leads all quarterbacks with 11 rushes of at least 10 yards.
With 11 games left in the regular season, Mahomes will now have a full arsenal of offensive weapons, confidence in his pass protection and the motivation to climb back to the top of the division — and the conference. It could easily end up being his third MVP season.
