Acme Packing Company
I think the Green Bay Packers are better than the Chicago Bears in a vacuum. However, I can’t make myself fully optimistic about the Week 14 game because I keep coming back to the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers REALLY remind me of the Bears, especially on offense, and the Packers really struggled with the Panthers because they do one thing in particular well.
The Panthers have a smaller, mobile quarterback who isn’t particularly great at passing. The Panthers have a very Rome Odunze-like Tet McMillan. But most importantly, the Panthers have Rico Dowdle, and to a lesser extent, Chuba Hubbard. You may recall that Dowdle rushed for 130 yards and two scores on 25 carries and basically won Carolina’s game against the Packers single-handedly. Dowdle is having a phenomenal season, as he ranks fifth overall in Next Gen Stats’ Rushing Yards Over Expected per Attempt, but he was also successful against the Packers because he hit a specific weakness.
In a recent post at FTN.com, Bryan Knowles took a look at how the Packers might be vulnerable to a Bears’ upset, and the biggest weakness that jumped out to Knowles was Green Bay’s weakness against inside zone runs. The Packers are by far the worst defense against inside zone runs on the season, allowing a colossally ridiculous 31.1% DVOA. In the Panthers game, Dowdle had 17 inside zone runs for 73 yards including both touchdowns, and if that yardage total seems low, please keep in mind the two touchdown runs totaled six yards.
In their signature Black Friday win over the Eagles, the Bears gained 281 yards on the ground, with 44.7% coming on inside zone runs, averaging 7.2 yards per carry. Both Kyle Monangai (21.3% DVOA) and D’Andre Swift (12.4%) have excelled on inside zone over the course of the season, and the Bears are likely aware of this Green Bay weakness, because the Carolina game isn’t the only time it showed up. Quinshon Judkins was similarly effective in the Browns’ earlier upset of the Packers, and even Giants’ running back Tyrone Tracy was pretty unstoppable in Green Bay’s win over the Giants.
The Packers’ losses have generally been low-scoring affairs where the opposing running backs went crazy, and the Bears should be able to execute on at least one half of that equation. If the Packer passing game decides to take a week off, the Bears could find themselves in a good spot once again, and you can bet that Ben Johnson will do everything in his power to hit this weakness repeatedly.
