Acme Packing Company
When the NFL initially released its regular season schedule for 2025, the Green Bay Packers were underdogs at home in week one. Hosting the Detroit Lions — who are coming off back-to-back NFC North titles and a 15-2 season last year — is no easy task, and being slight underdogs to that team is nothing to be embarrassed about, even if the game is on your home turf.
In mid-May, the oddsmakers put the Lions as 1.5-point favorites for the opener at Lambeau Field, a game that is the Packers’ first home game in week 1 since 2018. Moneyline bets had the Lions at -120 and the Packers at +102. But in the three-plus months since that time, the line has changed considerably, shifting a whopping four points.
Most of that change came immediately after the line was announced. With lots of money coming in on the Packers early on, it quickly shifted to a Packers -1.5 spread. But now, as of Wednesday, the Packers are now 2.5-point favorites at Fanduel Sportsbook, with a moneyline number of -142 against the Lions’ +120.
What’s the reason for the most recent shift? That’s easy: the Packers have a big new acquisition to unveil on Sunday afternoon, with Micah Parsons’ arrival moving the line another point in the team’s favor. Parsons’ impact on Sunday will be interesting to see, given that he will only have a week or so to learn the team’s defense, but expect him to be a key component of the team’s pass rush in nickel personnel groupings and in obvious passing situations.
This also marks the first time that the Packers are favored against the Lions since the season finale in 2022, which was Aaron Rodgers’ final game in green and gold. The Packers, who needed a win to clinch a playoff spot, were favored by five points but lost 20-16 as Dan Campbell’s team completed a season sweep of Green Bay despite being underdogs in both games. Since then, the Lions have been favored in four straight, winning three of four but splitting the games 2-2 against the spread.
Additionally, this game has an over/under total of 47.5 points, one of the higher numbers in week one across the NFL. Several other games match that number, but only one — Ravens vs. Bills on Sunday Night Football — has a bigger number, with that game coming in at 50.5.
