Acme Packing Company
With Week 10 firmly in the rearview mirror and no one still talking about it at all, it’s time we turn and look at the Week 11 match-up against the New York Giants. What can we expect to see from the Green Bay Packers’ offense in this game? I looked at some numbers and film to form a kind of attack plan against this Giants defense. (Unless otherwise noted, all the numbers I’m using here will be coming from NFL Pro.)
We’ll start where the Packers seem to want to start: with the run game. The Packers have not been particularly good this season (their EPA per rush of -0.04 has them 16th in the league), but the Giants’ defense has been even worse. The Giants boast the worst rushing defense in the league this year, allowing +0.16 per rush. That’s the same EPA per Play that Lamar Jackson has been generating every time he drops back this year (and +0.01 better than a Daniel Jones dropback).
The second-worst rushing defense in the league this year is the Bengals (+0.11 EPA per Rush), and that match-up saw Josh Jacobs put up 93 yards on 18 carries (5.2 YPA), his best game of the season. So I would expect to see a steady diet of the run game, and for the Packers to have success doing it.
Early in the game, you can hit the Giants on the edges. They typically have some soft edges, and you can take advantage of that with some outside tosses and some pin/pull runs.
As they start to take that away (and they will), you can find some lanes on the inside. You can dress those runs up to look the same to really create space on the interior. Bring the TE in on the escort motion, then hit ‘em with the inside toss.
The Packers’ down-to-down running game should also find success, but if they’re hunting for explosives on the ground, that would be a good way to do it. You can also find success out of I-Formation, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see TE Josh Whyle working in that role for the Packers this week.
When passing, the Packers should be able to find success wherever they want. Intermediate passing? The Packers are 4th on offense while the Giants are 23rd on defense. Quick game? The Packers are 2nd, the Giants are 10th. Play action? The Packers are 5th, the Giants are 21st. Long passing? The Packers are 13th, the Giants are 25th.
For now, we’ll focus on the play-action game, because that seems like an area the Packers could attack. The Giants’ linebackers react aggressively to play action, which has not necessarily been true of all the defenses the Packers have faced so far this season. They will react particularly strongly to play action from under center, but they will react nearly as strongly out of Pistol with the RB in a Dot formation (lined up directly behind the QB). Selling...
