Acme Packing Company
We’re all in various stages of grief right now over the loss of pass rusher Micah Parsons, so I want to open up debate about what the rest of the season looks like for you. I’ve accepted that the Green Bay Packers’ 2025 season hasn’t gone as planned. With tight end Tucker Kraft, center Elgton Jenkins, Parsons and defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt now finishing the year on the injured reserve, I just don’t think there’s enough left in the tank for the Packers to pull off four extra playoff victories at the end of the season, assuming that they’ll make the postseason.
Maybe you feel different than me, though. If you do, I don’t want to rob you of the importance of the ending of the season. What I do what to do, though, is look at where the Packers fall in the Super Bowl pecking order, either via a simulation or some sort of market. So let’s take a peek at what people think of Green Bay today.
Nine teams are ranked ahead of the Packers in the New York Times/The Athletic’s playoff simulations. Four of those teams are NFC teams, with the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers basically having the same opportunity as the Packers. Far in the lead in the conference, though, are the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks.
The first book we’ll be looking at is a bit kinder to the Packers, giving them a 7.7% implied probability of making the Super Bowl, about twice the rate of NYT/The Athletic’s simulations. Again, the Eagles have basically the same opportunity as the Packers, but the Rams and Seahawks lead the league.
The same is true for our second book, as far as the Rams and Seahawks go. Interestingly, neither of these books put the 49ers over the Packers, unlike NYT/The Athletic’s simulations.
The final datapoint we’ll look at is a “prediction market” (it’s a book). This looks more like the NYT/The Athletic simulation, placing the Packers in fifth place in the NFC and having them in a three-way tie for ninth...
