Pride of Detroit
The Detroit Lions have shown they’re not afraid to trade up in the past. Will that continue in 2025?
Brad Holmes and the Detroit Lions have made one thing clear through this regime’s tenure: if they like a guy, they’re not afraid to pay up to get him. The Lions paid a pretty penny to move up 20(!) spots in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft to get Jameson Williams. Then, in 2024, the Lions moved up five spots to snag Terrion Arnold in front of the record-breaking Detroit crowd. Will we continue to see the Lions jump the line for prospects they like?
As this team matures and has to pay out more contracts to star players, it begs the question: is the strategy of high draft picks sustainable? The Lions not only have to pay mid-round picks who have panned out, like Derrick Barnes’ $24 million deal this offseason, but they also have to pay their top picks. Aidan Hutchinson’s inevitable extension will likely be among the richest in NFL history, and the Lions have already been paying out contracts in that ballpark to guys like Penei Sewell and Alim McNeill.
That being the case, the Lions would benefit a lot from having rookie contracts that skew towards the end of round one (or even the top of round two) rather than the top of the first round. Based on 2025 rookie contract projections, the difference between the total contract value of the first overall pick vs the 32nd overall pick is almost $30M over four years.
The Lions aren’t picking at number one, though. They’re currently slated at pick number 28, and at that level, the difference between jumping up five spots or falling back five spots is just under $5 million dollars over four years. So, realistically, money shouldn’t be a factor unless the Lions are trading up into the teens.
The other factor is the value of mid-round picks. As the Lions become very top-heavy with stars, it’s especially important that they fill out the roster with quality depth. Last year’s injuries showed us the importance of that. Sometimes that takes the form of players with certain drawbacks, be it size, speed, character, or otherwise, and trying to develop them into well-rounded players. Other times, it means meeting them where they are, and drafting those guys for niche roles—think a pass-catching running back, coverage linebacker, or special teams ace.
As the Lions defense atrophied last year, we saw the importance of having guys who can step up in those niche roles. For the Lions, that makes their mid-round picks as valuable as they’ve ever been. They’re a key part of building a sustainable roster that’s not going to crash as soon as you have to pay your top players. And who knows, with elite players above them, they can learn...
