Open thread: How many blockbuster NFL trades will actually happen in 2025?

Open thread: How many blockbuster NFL trades will actually happen in 2025?
Pride of Detroit Pride of Detroit

A look at some of the early NFL trade speculations and debating whether any will actually happen.

The NFL offseason is always full of hopes and dreams. Every fan and armchair general manager can build out their dream offseason—full of huge trades, big contracts, and bold draft moves. Of course, many of the people doing these mock offseason don’t have a clue on how to proper balance a salary cap, understand the value of certain players, or consider player and schematic fit. But I don’t want to be a Debbie Downer. Chase those dreams!

However, at some point we have to come to the understanding that a lot the rumors, drama, and speculation will never come to fruition. Disgruntled players often publicly display their displeasure as a negotiating ploy. Oftentimes, these rumors have no basis in reality.

Just think of all the times in which deals eventually got done at the last minute after a season of panic. The Dallas Cowboys are a perfect example. Everyone was mocking up their trades for CeeDee Lamb and Dak Prescott last offseason, yet both eventually got paid. Deebo Samuel demanded a trade in 2022 (and again this year) and didn’t end up going anywhere. Chris Jones’ holdout lasted into the regular season in 2023, but he eventually got paid.

So today’s Question of the Day is:

How many of these speculated trades are actually going to happen in 2025?

My answer: I’m going to focus on three particularly hot trade rumors right now: Myles Garrett, Maxx Crosby, and Matthew Stafford.

We all know the Garrett stuff by now. He has offered a public statement saying he wants out of Cleveland, because it’s time for him to start chasing championships at this point in his career. There’s no doubt Garrett legitimately wants out, and there will be no shortage of interest in attaining him. The big question here is whether the Browns will let him out.

General manager Andrew Berry has made it very clear the team has no interest in trading him away, even if the price is two first-round picks. That’s because losing Garrett would not only be a big hit to the roster, but it would put them in serious financial strain with their salary cap commitments—and they are already projected to be over the 2025 salary cap. I still have my doubts about this trade ever coming into fruition, but Garrett’s move to make this public shows he’s committed. I would not be surprised to see this standoff last into the regular season. Chance of happening: 30%

Maxx Crosby is similarly stuck with the Raiders, set to play in his seventh season with a franchise that has produced just a single winning season while he’s been there. While he has talked about how much he’d love to play for Dan Campbell, there is no real smoke here. Crosby has never said he’s wanted out of Las Vegas, and the Raiders have insisted they won’t trade him. I imagine the...